North Korea's bombshell

North Korea's decision to test a nuclear bomb is a serious threat to global stability and security which calls for a firm and united response from the international community, even though the options would seem somewhat limited.

I don't think most observers were particularly surprised by Pyongyang's latest irresponsible act - after all, it withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in January 2003, it told the UN General Assembly in September 2004 that it had converted plutonium into nuclear weapons, and two weeks ago announced that it will "in the future conduct a nuclear test".

Perhaps some analysts did not expect the test to take place so soon, but it did, and the world woke up a less safe place last Tuesday. We now have to deal with a new dangerous reality: North Korea, the last of the world's Stalinist regimes, which is on the brink of economic collapse, which makes threatening noises against its neighbours, which is still in state of war with south Korea, and which is led by an unpredictable (some would also say half mad) dictator, Kim Jong-Il, possesses nuclear weapons.

It is no coincidence that North Korea tested a nuclear weapon soon after Japan's new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe concluded a very successful visit to China and just as he arrived in South Korea. The fact that the nuclear test took place shortly after the announcement that the new UN secretary-general is to be South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon is also significant. North Korea wants to show that it is a force to be reckoned with in the region and that it does not approve of a rapprochement between China, Japan and North Korea.

The international condemnation of North Korea's nuclear test was swift and almost universal. The US, EU, Russia, Britain, France, China, South Korea and Japan were naturally the most vocal in their condemnation and an emergency UN Security Council meeting was held the day after the test was held to consider sanctions proposed by the US against Pyongyang, such as international inspections of cargo to and from North Korea.

The North Korean underground nuclear explosion has the potential to create a new arms race in Asia, is a huge blow for international diplomacy, a slap in the face to both Washington and Beijing - the latter being Pyongyang's closest 'ally' - and threatens the survival of an arms control system that has more or less managed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons over the past 40 years.

Japan, which feels most threatened by North Korea, could now be tempted to develop its own nuclear weapons as a deterrent. Iran, which is suspected of secretly working on the production of nuclear weapons, and which has constantly defied the international community, will no doubt be encouraged by this latest development. Other countries with potential nuclear ambitions will no doubt take heart at the defiance of Kim Jong-Il.

There are no easy options in this crisis. War is highly improbable, as the Americans are not in the mood for it and Iraq has made another military conflict unlikely. Furthermore, now that North Korea possesses nuclear weapons, the scenario has changed. Any military action against Pyongyang would almost certainly be met with a nuclear response against South Korea or Japan - which would then lead to the destruction of North Korea - but that is another point. So the military options are very limited.

Economic sanctions will also have a limited effect on Kim Jong-Il's regime: they are more likely to hurt the average man in the street who has already suffered so much under this terrible Communist dictatorship. Some sort of sanctions would be advisable, however, at least to show that such tests will not be tolerated and also to prevent North Korea from exporting its nuclear weapons to either rogue states or terrorist organisations.

Japan has already imposed its own tough sanctions as a result of Pyongyang's nuclear test, banning all ships, imports and most North Korean nationals from entering the country. Nevertheless, the international community needs to speak with one voice and the role of China is crucial here. Both China and South Korea have traditionally adopted a more cautious approach in dealing with North Korea than have the US and Japan, for example, because both are keen to maintain stability and fear the effects of a collapsed regime on their borders.

However, it seems that China has lost patience with its so-called 'ideological ally' and has called for punitive actions on North Korea. It is said that Pyongyang gave Beijing 20 minutes' warning before conducting its nuclear test - which China was always opposed to - thus giving the message that it has little respect for its giant neighbour.

China now has a major role to play in this crisis. Its massive aid programme to North Korea virtually keeps the country's economy afloat. Withdrawal of such aid will probably cause the regime to collapse, but obviously there are risks at such an outcome. Who knows what a nuclear armed regime would do in its last dying moments especially one led by Kim Jong-Il?

In the meantime North Korea has continued to be defiant. A foreign ministry statement said after the international criticism of the test: "If the US keeps pestering us and increases pressure, we will regard it as a declaration of war and will take a series of physical corresponding measures". In other words, it will conduct more nuclear tests.