North Korea nuclear test would spur Japan arms debate

A North Korean nuclear test would shake regional stability and provide ammunition to hawks who want to beef up Japan's military capability, but is not expected to lead to a nuclear arms race in North Asia.

Pyongyang announced that it would carry out a nuclear test sometime in the future, saying its hand had been forced by US threats and sanctions.

The statement was condemned by Washington, Seoul and Tokyo among others and Japan, probably the most jittery of North Korea's neighbours, immediately set about discussing how it might tighten the sanctions it imposed after North Korea defied international warnings and launched ballistic missiles in July.

An actual nuclear test is almost certain to intensify debate about whether Japan - the only country to have suffered an atomic attack - should build up its military arsenal and perhaps even develop nuclear weapons.

A report by Republicans on the US House Intelligence Committee just days before Pyongyang's statement had warned that a North Korean nuclear test might push not just Japan but also South Korea and Taiwan into starting nuclear weapons programmes, posing a serious risk to regional stability.

But the effects would likely be more gradual, analysts said. "It will certainly put pressure on the Japanese government to think about the nuclear option, particularly at a time when they've got the most hawkish prime minister they've had in the postwar period in Mr Abe," said Alan Dupont, Hintze professor of international security at the University of Sydney.

Shinzo Abe, who took over as Premier last week, favours revising the US-drafted pacifist constitution and wants Japan to be able to exercise the right to collective self defence - in other words, to be able to help an ally under attack.

Mr Abe said in 2002 he did not think possession of short-range nuclear weapons would violate the Constitution, long interpreted as allowing Japan's military to play only a defensive role.

"What I think will happen is that an 'arms crawl', not an arms race, will develop," said Christopher Kevork, a researcher at the Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra.

A North Korean test would, however, bolster the argument that Japan should develop an independent strike capability, he said.

The debate over whether Japan should develop the capacity to strike overseas launch pads has simmered since Pyongyang fired a long-range missile over Japan in 1998.

Japan already has an independent rocket programme, meaning it would probably be capable of putting together a long-range missile relatively quickly, analysts say.

But most add that the Japanese government would have trouble persuading the public to back nuclear weapons.

Despite Japan's concerns about North Korea's missiles, its defence budget has declined slightly over the past few years, from more than $41.6 billion in 2001 to less than $40.8 billion in 2005.

There are other, more practical reasons why Tokyo, and indeed Taiwan and South Korea, would likely steer clear of such a drastic move in the foreseeable future, many analysts say.

Pressure from the United States to remain non-nuclear would be a formidable hurdle for all three governments, which have close ties with Washington.

"There are obvious great costs, because others will arm against Japan and that could include Indonesia and Australia," said Robyn Lim of Japan's Nanzan University.

Prof. Dupont of Sydney University made a similar point. "It doesn't actually improve their strategic position. If they develop their own nuclear weapons capability, it increases the possibility of a nuclear exchange, not so much with North Korea as with China," he said.

However, the mere possibility of a nuclear Japan could be a motivating factor in northeast Asian diplomacy, according to one US intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

With relations between Pyongyang and Beijing already tense over North Korea's missile tests, China could be concerned enough about a possible regional arms race to pressure North Korea to abandon plans for a nuclear test.

"Beijing doesn't want a nuclear armed Japan. They have red lines on what they'll tolerate from Pyongyang and a nuclear test might be one of them," the official said.