Will the PM call an early general election? Aided and abetted by his top party official, he is sending out mixed signals. There are four dates in the speculation box. Two were placed there by the PN secretary general, in an interview with MaltaToday (September 17). He did not exclude having a general election and local council elections on the same date, in March or April, adding: "If you ask me if it is next year, I can't say." Next year is 2007.
Dr Gonzi seemingly tried to defuse the speculation raised by the interview. He reminded he could go on till August 2008 and warned the country should not go into election mode. In his Independence Day speech he set an 18-months action timeframe for his party candidates (The Times, September 21) but proceeded to electioneer without pause for breath. Little wonder that the secretary general's "next year" bit stuck. Activists buttonholing for tangible aid are said to be adding a broad wink at the calendar to their pleas.
The second date derived from the PN secretary general's musings and the PM's "18 months" timeframe is March/April 2008. That is more credible. It would see the government serving out five years from its 2003 victory. Lawrence Gonzi would have been four years PM. A third possible date falls around a year from now, within the autumn of next year. It is tied to the euro.
The PN secretary general told MaltaToday the euro was not an election issue. Only the politically naïve would fall for his narrow interpretation. The euro must be preying on the PM's mind, for electoral as well as technical considerations. Should Malta converge to the Maastricht criteria enough to be able to join the euro zone on January 1, 2008 he will have to decide on tough calculations he would already be making.
If the EU clears Malta to adopt the euro the PM will return to his theme, recently muted, that the Union has confirmed the government's economic and financial success. He will balance that with the threat that adopting the euro could shove retail prices up. Calling the election after Malta is cleared to adopt the euro, but before it actually does so would be one major scenario he is mulling over.
Before the year is out it will start becoming clearer if the comparative rate of inflation will ease off enough to permit a yes decision to be adopted. If the "yes" is confirmed around April to June Dr Gonzi will definitely be tempted to call an election in the autumn of 2007. At the moment the party polls are pointing towards a clear Labour victory. The PN will be hoping to change that, with attacks on Alfred Sant in particular becoming fiercer.
The state of the economy and the euro, therefore, will be a major consideration in how much earlier the general election will be than in August 2008. If euro adoption has to be postponed, the PM will drop the autumn 2007 scenario. If the opinion polls remain heavily against the PN advisers will urge him to stay on to the last.
So when should one expect the general election? My prediction: In late November 2007, after Dr Gonzi presents the 2008 Budget early in October, if Malta is cleared to adopt the euro. If euro adoption has to be postponed, in April 2008 in combined local/general elections, as Dr Gonzi will be chary to risk leaving the general election till after yet another possible drubbing in the March 2008 local elections.
It would be harmful if, in the meanwhile Malta lurches along mired more deeply than ever in out-of-season electioneering. The ongoing tragicomedy raises not a single laugh but could force a lot of tears. Those that burn most will not be the losers, whenever the general election takes place.
Concluded