Electoral mood

The electoral mood makes for an interesting time indeed. Polarisation reaches its optimum, ordinary citizens take on the "World Cup" rivalry syndrome. Party leaders suffer from mental and cardiac stress. Statisticians play with figures. Economists profess their assumptions. Political observers jump to conclusions. The local media is hijacked. Home visits get into full swing. The floating voter joins the fold.

Elections in Malta are hallmarks of democracy at work, as is the case in the United States and the European Union. Europeans are said to vote primarily for their party preference while the Americans tend to support the individual candidate with less emphasis on party affiliation. In Malta we tend to mix the European and American trends. With some exceptions, we vote for our preferred candidate within the party we support.

Will that be the case at the next general election? The race between Lawrence Gonzi and Alfred Sant appears to some to be getting increasingly close, while some see it as already over - in Labour's favour. But one year and nine months before the elections is a long time in politics, especially since many unpredictable and maybe unprecedented events may occur till then.

The next elections will be contested with no major national issue on the agenda. The state of the economy, social welfare and governance will be the prime targets which our political parties will focus on during the electoral campaigns.

However, it is very unlikely that the voter will be receptive to politicians' rhetoric on who did what and how it could have been done better.

Dr Gonzi and Dr Sant both enjoy high levels of personal popularity. Ideologically, the big parties are far apart. Even the third party is evidently distinct from both of them. However, they get closer to each other in their planning, implementation and enforcement of decisions - hence the irrelevance with which many voters view electoral manifestos.

I would bet that the next election will be predominantly characterised by the American trend - that it's the driver that matters and not the vehicle or the destination!

Both Dr Gonzi and Dr Sant entered the political arena touting the fact that they are good managers with an eye for practical, not ideological, approaches to problems. Both have portrayed themselves as being at home in corporate boardrooms as much as with the common man. Yet their leadership qualities and managerial experience have not prevented some significant skids in the management of the economy.

Dr Gonzi carries heavier baggage than Dr Sant. He leads a party that has been in office for some 20 years and his old Cabinet has left him vulnerable to criticism. He has not excelled in tourism and environmental issues, taxation and foreign direct investment. His good intentions for job creation and workers' mobility will only be achieved in the long term, far beyond the coming elections. Dr Gonzi's way of doing politics still needs to get off the ground. He projects a fresh outlook and an optimistic approach but his premiership has not yet left its mark, as he did when he served as Speaker of the House.

Dr Sant has lost his affiliation with New Labour. His credibility rating is still gaining momentum. His personal integrity and intellectual abilities are his major strengths but he lacks the unified support of the old Labourites and the undecided and disenchanted voters. His shadow cabinet, with few exceptions, does not portray a strong team that would ensure a better government. His short spell as premier has left negative vibes on the basis of performance, although time wise that may be the reason for granting him the opportunity of a second chance at the helm. Dr Sant's political career depends entirely on the outcome of the next elections.

AD chairman Harry Vassallo is not to be ignored. He is the humble gentleman of local politics. He has little say and he is more renowned for airing the views of the underdog. He is perceived as the gap filler, attracting votes by default rather than by conviction. The party he leads is still considered as a pressure group obsessed with environmental issues. His chances of gaining a seat in Parliament are there but that would still be a big surprise to our electorate!

Our leaders are already getting into electoral mode. The PN has already announced its preliminary list of party candidates. The MLP has declared that it is on the alert in case elections are called tomorrow.

The pre-budget document gives clear indication that the feel good factor is around the corner. Our economic growth rate is now on track, our deficit targets will be reached by the end of this year, and job opportunities are now available. The only hurdle is the euro changeover. By May next year we will get the green or red light from the European Union. Then the Prime Minister would be able to announce the election date.

But that is not so important. What matters is that the voter has to decide who should run the show for the following five years. Do we want more of Dr Gonzi but without the shadow of Dr Fenech Adami? Or do we want Dr Sant for the sake of change and a different route?

The first-time voters and the floating voters will give the right answer at the right time!

micallefemmanuel@yahoo.co.uk