Editorial

It has been an awful summer for Tony Blair. Many people in Britain are saying the immediate problem for him and for the party he leads is whether he will fare better in the autumn, or, more ominously, the fall. Yet again, those who think they are in the know are now predicting that after a winter of discontent it will be in the springtime that their once much admired leader will go.

A circle has been drawn around May 31 for Mr Blair's final farewell as Labour Party leader. Others say he will sing goodbye "within a year", which would give him until the end of next August. Whatever the outcome, Mr Blair has been left in no doubt that the end of the road is nigh, but it may be a relevant point to make - even while acknowledging that this time any escape route he has in mind will be more difficult to map - that the man has been here before.

Escape this time has been made less possible by reports that one of the party whips was among those who wrote to suggest that the Prime Minister should start clearing his in-tray.

For a man who was personally responsible for getting his party re-elected three times in succession, the first time with a majority that would make any opposition blanch (and the Conservative party did just that - until last year), these must be bitter moments.

Mr Blair did not make matters any easier for himself by implying publicly that he would not be pushed into a decision because this would render him lamer than he already was. One sees his point... up to a point.

Unfortunately for him, too many inside the party and outside it are resolutely not seeing it.

It now looks as if a final tour of the country will give Mr Blair the chance to say farewell and, inevitably, of selling his leadership to the extent that this may get those who once hailed him as their greatest asset to acknowledge his contribution and allow him to work out a dignified departure.

The problem with that are Mr Blair's obvious eel-like qualities. Unbind him, say his critics, and he will once more delay. There is something to that. The sad truth of the matter is that what had started as a bright dawn with a New Labour, a difficult animal to bring to terms in the context of where its previous leaders had led it, gives every sign of ending in a dull, even tarnished light. The man who would be an oxymoron, a republican king, is no longer a contender.

As with all political events involving a politician's exit from office, it seems to be an inexorable law that when the time to leave arrives there is not only a sense of loss for the trappings and the power but there is also the knowledge that the man who will take over is waiting impatiently in the wings, urging on the departure.

In this case, it has been a long wait. When the story of his years in office comes to be written it may be judged one of Mr Blair's greatest failures that he kept his successor offstage too long; while the Leader of the Opposition was allowed to grow in stature, Mr Blair's decreased and with it that of his heir apparent.

But do not write him off, yet. The man is made of India rubber.