Climate change: bad news for Maltese tourism

Climate change is likely to rob Mediterranean tourist destinations such as Malta of their summer lure, as temperatures become too hot for continental holidaymakers, according to a report that studied the effect of global warming on tourism.

Moreover, in an ironic swapping of roles, the Maltese could be flocking to the beaches of Blackpool for some seaside fun in a few decades' time, fleeing the unbearable heat back home.

The study is a British and Dutch report project, published in the Journal of Sustainable Tourism.

Speaking to The Times, one of the academics on the study, David Viner, from the University of East Anglia, said Malta may not be one of the worst hit countries, given that it is surrounded by the sea.

"Spain is likely to be the worst hit," he said. "The country is already suffering from high temperatures and prolonged droughts."

But the news is still bad, especially when put in the context of an already struggling sector. Recent figures hit a 10-year low, according to official statistics.

The effects of climate change are usually discussed in terms of long-term predictions. In fact, the study itself makes general projections for as far away as 2050 and 2080.

However, Dr Viner says that while the average temperature will probably shift gradually, freak weather such as this summer's heatwave and that of 2003 are likely to take place more often. Some 15,000 people, mostly elderly, are estimated to have died from the heat during that year in France alone.

"The 2003 heatwave should not have been experienced for at least 30 to 40 years. We didn't just see marginal increases but leaps of four to five degrees over previous records."

By 2050 we estimate that a summer like that of 2003 will take place every two years.

When you have a frequent repetition of good summers, people in Northern Europe are likely to rethink their holiday plans, Dr Viner said.

The study, Tourism And Its Interactions With Climate Change, uses what is known as a comfort index, which is a measurement that gauges the optimum weather conditions people look for when they travel.

"The 2003 heatwave did not affect tourism statistics that year because most people had made their bookings. But the year after tour operators noticed that people were making bookings later in the year," Dr Viner continued. Tourist resorts in the north became more popular.

Mass tourism is driven by sun and sea. "You'd like to think that most Britons and Germans are driven to places like Malta for the culture but in reality they are attracted by the weather, because of the fact that English and German are spoken and because they can find the food they like and so on.

Now, if people return to wet and miserable weather back home they are likely to say: ok we'll bear the heat, but if the weather back home is warm and sunny, as it was here up till recently, then they are likely to start reconsidering their travel plans.

"In sum, I think we will be seeing more competition for summer tourism coming from the northern countries."

But the picture may not be all gloomy; it will all depend on Malta's skill to market itself. The change in weather, in fact, is likely to make what are known as the shoulder months in the low season more attractive.

Patterns of holidaymaking, especially among the young parent generations, are dictated by the school periods, so it is unlikely that the summer will lose its place as the holiday season.

"However, places like Malta would want to consider increasing their marketing for periods such as the Easter season, for instance," Dr Viner advised. There may be opportunities for the Mediterranean in this respect.