Cuban communism looks beyond Castro

The handover of power by Cuban President Fidel Castro to his brother Raul after having surgery brought home to friend and foe alike the proximity of change on the Communist-ruled island.

The leadership of the Caribbean country of 11 million has begun to prepare by bolstering the Communist Party. Gen. Castro's designated successor - his younger brother and Cuba's long-serving Defence Minister, Raul Castro - began to take a more visible role in public.

The US government, an implacable foe, tightened sanctions and increased support for Cuban dissidents, seeking to undermine a succession and foster a quick transition to multiparty elections and a free-market economy.

But General Castro's opponents concentrated in the exile community in Miami could see their hopes dashed if they are banking on the rapid collapse of communist rule in Cuba.

After surviving the demise of Soviet communism, General Castro has pulled Cuba out of dire economic straits with financial relief from Venezuela's left-wing President Hugo Chavez, and with cheap credit from China.

There is no hint of the Soviet-style liberalisations of glasnost or perestroika.

Raul Castro, only five years younger than his brother, lacks his charismatic oratory, but firmly commands Cuba's 50,000-member armed forces, which in turn control the police.

He indicated in June that a collective leadership would likely govern a post-Castro Cuba.

"Only the Communist Party... can be the worthy heir of the trust Cubans have placed in their leader," he said in a speech to military officers.

"That's the way it will be, so that we can continue shouting in the Empire's face: Viva Cuba libre!" he said, referring to the United States.

Most analysts agree Raul Castro will play a crucial initial role in ensuring stability for a quick succession followed by a slow and difficult transition.

Brian Latell, a former CIA analyst who has watched Cuba for decades, believes Raul, once an orthodox Communist and now a pragmatist, will emerge as Cuba's next leader with the backing of the army, keep the lid on dissent and push through economic reforms following China's model.

"Raul has the military, he has Minint (Interior Ministry), he has a big chunk of the economy, and he is asserting a more dominant role in the party through the secretariat," said Mr Latell, author of the book After Fidel.

Analysts are unsure how the Cuban public will react to the eventual departure of Fidel Castro. Will people run into the streets in joy or be frozen by fear and a sense of orphanhood?

Two out of every three Cubans were born after Gen. Castro's 1959 revolution and know no other political system.

Leading dissident Oswaldo Paya believes most Cubans, tired of economic hardship and arbitrary restrictions on private enterprise, will not put up with a communist succession.

Growing harassment of dissidents has created a climate of intolerance that could lead to violent turmoil, he warned.

"The ruling oligarchy must decide if it will hold onto its power and privileges or open opportunities for all Cubans," said Mr Paya, an advocate of peaceful democratic reforms.

Mr Latell does not expect violent demonstrations and sees the government managing the immediate aftermath of Fidel Castro's death.

"It's going to be tough for his successors. They will have a real juggling act without the Titanic presence of Fidel," he said.