Fortune and its twin

Opposition Leader Alfred Sant will not let any summer holidays let him lose sight of the political grail that lies within his grasp. He knows his Shakespeare and sees that the current tide in political affairs should lead him on to fortune in a general election which could be not much more than a year away. The MLP rides the strong prediction that it is bound to win, the sooner the election takes place, the better.

Labour will be aware that the PN's secret polls are telling it that support for the government has ebbed to below pre-1996 election levels, that canvassed households are venting their anger on PN candidates, and that various Nationalists have all but given up the ghost though on paper there could be two years to the general election.

Should the PM does call it in the early autumn of next year, if Malta qualifies to adopt the euro, Dr Sant will be confident that he would win, but will take no chances. He also knows that the autumn 2007 scenario would be scrapped if, come May/June next year, Malta fails the convergence test and adoption of the euro on January 1, 2008 is swept off the schedule.

In that eventuality it would be most unlikely that Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi will not see out his term, though not necessarily to the bitter end as Labour did in 1987. Whenever the next election takes place, it should be there for the taking by Labour. If the PM moves into it with his present team, that will make defeat more likely. Should he ultimately chop and change, it will then be seen as too little, too late.

The PM will try some limited massaging in the coming budget. The electorate may not roll over easily. Nor can the PN count on gifts from the MLP, as in 2003. Should the inflation trend be reversed, Malta pass the euro test and the PM call an early election it is highly unlikely that Labour would say that it would freeze adoption. Rather, Dr Sant would be able to use euro adoption at the rate scheduled by this Nationalist government to counter the main early dampener to his triumph.

His toughest task will be not to win the election, but to meet the expectations within the flooding tide that leads him to electoral fortune. There will be no question this time round of any smouldering threat on the backbenches. Fulfilling expectations will be another matter.

Labour should win for reasons additional to its freshness relative to the bone-weary, jaded and arrogant Nationalist government. Traditional Labour supporters will vote in droves, an element of traditional Nationalist voters will stay away and the not-very-committed will want a change.

There will be high expectations regarding lower prices, new direct investment and employment, education and tourism. Many will demand quick results. They will not be deliverable. There are no quick fixes in politics. Should Labour win an early election and proceed to respect the scheduled adoption of the euro at the rate set by the present government it could point out that, thereby, it will be harder to get the economy moving as quickly as projected in opposition.

The party leaders will dismiss all this as speculation, rather than educated guesses. Yet, expect them to run and re-run the hypotheses through their brain box this summer. Do not expect a break in the political heat. The twin tides of fortune and misfortune will be running very fast.

Concluded