Lebanon: pity the nation

There seems to be no end in sight to the war in Lebanon. The situation seems to be getting worse by the day. I have yet to meet any level-headed analyst or observer who believes that Israel's response was not disproportionate.

Most of the international community, with the notable exception of the United States, is also of the opinion that Israel, which is certainly entitled to live in peace and security, went too far in its response to the capture of two of their soldiers by Hizbollah.

How can one justify such extensive military attacks on the entire country, resulting in the death of so many innocent civilians, the destruction of Lebanon's infrastructure, the creation of thousands of refugees, the possible split up of the country along sectarian and religious lines, and the possibility of other outside powers intervening in the conflict?

Perhaps President Emeritus Guido de Marco best summed up Israel's response in a newspaper interview recently when he said: "If I punch you in the face, you have no right to shoot me with a revolver," adding:

"It was not a case of an eye for an eye or a tooth for a tooth. In this case we have ten eyes for an eye and ten teeth for a tooth."

Of course, Hizbollah's ruthless deliberate targeting of civilians in Israel in this conflict - and before - is to be equally condemned. Such attacks can never be condoned.

Lebanon has for too long suffered as a result of outside interference. Israel, Iran, Syria and the Palestinians have all played their part in causing great suffering and problems for Lebanon.

Israel has repeatedly attacked and invaded Lebanon since 1978. The Palestinian presence in Lebanon was a major cause of the Lebanese civil war from 1976 to 1989. Syria has until recently held a firm grip on Lebanon and hijacked its foreign policy, and Iran (and Syria) are arming and funding Hizbollah which is a virtual state within a state and which is used to further Iranian and Syrian interests.

There can be no doubt at all that Hizbollah is to blame for sparking off this crisis by kidnapping the Israeli soldiers and by firing rockets into Israel to open up a second front at a time when Israel was already dealing with a kidnapping of one of its soldiers in Gaza.

It seems that Hizbollah wanted to test the resolve of the new Israeli government in dealing with such a situation. Well, it now has got its answer and the Lebanese people are paying a heavy price for Hizbollah's latest adventure.

There is also no doubt in my mind that Iran, and perhaps to a lesser extent Syria, were behind Hizbollah's attacks on Israel. Syria finds it useful to have Hizbollah - which is pro-Syrian - as an ally in the region, through which it can influence events in Lebanon and Israel and thus prove it is a regional power to be reckoned with.

The Iranian regime and Hizbollah on the other hand are not only allies but ideologically close, as both are militant Shi'ites.

Historically, Shi'ite clerics in Lebanon and Iran have been very close and most analysts believe that Hizbollah never takes any major decision without first consulting Teheran.

Iran is also using Hizbollah to try to position itself in the Middle East and Muslim world as a champion of the Palestinians and as a power that does not hesitate to adopt a hardline position towards Israel.

There is no doubt that Hizbollah is a threat to peace and stability in the entire region but the simple fact is that there was no Hizbollah when Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982 in an attempt to crush the Palestine Liberation Organisation.

The movement was created as a result of that Israeli invasion, as a resistance movement to the occupation of southern Lebanon.

Despite the fact that Israel withdrew from Lebanon in 2000 and Syrian troops pulled out of the country last year in the aftermath of the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, Hizbollah chose to keep its arms, remain detached from the Lebanese state and continue to attack Israel.

This was in defiance of the 2004 UN resolution 1559, which besides demanding Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon, called for the disarmament of the country's remaining militias.

Unfortunately, the Lebanese government was not strong enough to disarm Hizbollah and to take control of the border areas with Israel. It also did not want to risk re-opening old conflicts in Lebanon after the country's terrible civil war.

Israel was right to be frustrated at this state of affairs, but attacking Lebanon is certainly not the solution. Surely such a course of action will only result in making a weak state even weaker? How then will the Lebanese government be able to take on Hizbollah?

What, therefore, is the way forward? International diplomatic efforts need to stepped up and Israel and Hizbollah must be convinced to agree to a ceasefire. The US, which has been largely absent from the diplomatic scene during this crisis, the UN and the European Union must pressure Israel to stop its attacks.

Syria and Iran must be pressured to convince Hizbollah to do likewise. The proposal by UN secretary general Kofi Annan for a strong international military force to act as a buffer between Israel and Hizbollah should be supported.

Negotiations will then have to start over the captured Israeli soldiers and the hundreds of Lebanese in Israeli jails, followed by an international conference on Lebanon.

Of course the ultimate aim should be to integrate Hizbollah into the Lebanese army under the control of the Lebanese government. This will not be easy and will require long and delicate negotiations and diplomatic manoeuvres which, yes, will also have to involve Syria and Iran.

These two states will have to be pressured by the UN not to continue meddling in Lebanon.

What is needed is an overall peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon, which, understandably, will take many years to achieve and which will aim at getting rid of the Hizbollah threat once and for all.

This won't be easy but its certainly a better idea than trying to crush Hizbollah by military might - which has resulted in the deaths of so many Lebanese civilians and the creation of thousands of refugees, a weakening of the Lebanese state and probably increased support for Hizbollah in Lebanon.