Only US pressure can stop widening Lebanon crisis

Only US diplomacy can now end a crisis between Hizbollah and Israel that has escalated from a bid to force the release of two Israeli soldiers into a war that threatens to suck in the militants' Syrian and Iranian allies.

While the US has expressed concern about mounting civilian casualties, it has placed the blame squarely on Hizbollah and urged Syria and Iran to force it to stop fighting.

So far, diplomats say, Israel has a green light from Washington to carry out its attacks in Lebanon. It has resisted pressure from Egypt, Jordan and the European Union to join any initiative to end the fighting.

"Both sides are stuck in position now. The only way out is if the US decides to make them stop. It requires very creative diplomacy," said Timur Goksel, veteran former spokesman for the United Nations peacekeeping force in south Lebanon, UNIFIL.

"This is not a war against Hizbollah. This is a war to reshape Lebanese politics. They tried it in 1982, and it will not succeed... Hizbollah will not just go away."

While few analysts see Iran and Syria being drawn into direct military conflict with Israel, an Israeli strike on the border with Syria raised fears that the conflict could spread. Both Syria and Israel denied any rockets had fallen outside Lebanon, but Damascus warned yesterday that it would respond harshly to any attack and the scope for accidental escalation is high as the conflict takes on its own dynamic.

Many rockets Hizbollah has fired at Israel, especially a guided missile that damaged an Israeli warship off Beirut, are Iranian-made or supplied. Iran has expressed solidarity with Syria and Hizbollah and has warned Israel that it would face "unimaginable damages" if it widened the front.

"Both sides have changed the rules of the game. This has all the makings of a full-scale regional war," said Amal Saad Ghorayeb, a professor and author of a book on Hizbollah.

EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana arrived in the region yesterday, but his efforts to seek a diplomatic solution will probably gain no traction unless the United States pressures Israel to curb its military operations.

"Israel is in the middle of a military operation the US is giving it time to complete, but this cannot last because soon the pressure for diplomatic action will build," a diplomatic source in Lebanon said.

Germany, which has mediated past prisoner exchanges between Israel and Hizbollah, has been talking to parties but Israel has so far shown no interest in a swap, a European diplomat said.

"The Quartet can do nothing because one very large and very important member of the Quartet is sitting on its hands," a European diplomat said, in reference to the US which is a Middle East peace broker along with the United Nations, Russia, and the European Union.

Lebanon said yesterday Italy had relayed two Israeli conditions for a ceasefire - the return of the two captured soldiers, and a Hizbollah pullback from the border. But it said no formal negotiations were taking place.

The most common formula touted for an eventual diplomatic solution would be an initiative by the Quartet and US-allied Arab states for deployment of Lebanon's army to the south with Hizbollah pushed back further north and the gradual disarmament of Hizbollah in line with UN Security Council resolution 1559.

"This explains why no action was taken in the Security Council meeting this week. This crisis will be allowed to take its course and after 10 or 15 days the international community will step in with a new formula," said Nizar Hamzeh, a university professor who has published a study on Hizbollah.

"The Israeli aim is to push Hizbollah 20-25 km from the border, hoping this large-scale operation will turn the Lebanese against Hizbollah," he said.

"I think the operation will continue for at least a week or two, then there will be a ceasefire, UNIFIL will be reinforced by 1,000 or 2,000 to monitor the border, behind them will be the Lebanese army and behind them Hizbollah."

The United Nations force UNIFIL deployed in south Lebanon after Israel's first invasion in 1978 to monitor the border.

"After that, Hizbollah would be so far from the border that disarming them would no longer matter," Mr Hamzeh said.

Hizbollah, whose attacks helped end Israel's 22-year occupation of southern Lebanon in 2000, defends its right to bear arms to protect a weak and divided Lebanon against Israel.

Some fear the fighting could continue for years. "Everything the Israelis are doing points to preparation for a ground offensive to create a security zone in the south," the diplomatic source in Lebanon said.

"They may reoccupy or just keep the areas clear but if there is a reoccupation we are back to square one. Fighting will continue, possibly for years, not just by Hizbollah but others."