Mexican conservative could buck Latin America trend

For all the talk of the rise of Latin America's left, Mexican presidential hopeful Felipe Calderon could show today that, while unfashionable, US-style conservatives can still win hearts and minds.

Years of stuttering market reforms under outgoing President Vicente Fox from free trade to a credit card bonanza have taken root among many voters who fear leftists so popular in countries like Venezuela and Bolivia could bring ruin.

Leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is a slight favourite in today's elections but polls are so close that a win for the Harvard-educated Calderon, promising more foreign investment and pro-business reforms, is a real possibility.

The core of Calderon's support lies with an emerging middle class in Mexico enjoying years of relative financial stability following the currency devaluations and debt crises that plagued the country in the 1980s and 1990s.

Under Fox, who ended 71 years of Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, rule six years ago, many Mexicans have enjoyed greater access to consumer credit despite tepid growth. The number of credit cards in Mexico has nearly tripled during his term and a stable peso has spawned more savings accounts and mortgages.

The NAFTA free trade deal has sparked an explosion in US goods. Consumers flock to Wal-Mart and Home Depot. Shopping malls that would not be out of place in US suburbia litter many wealthier Mexican cities near the US border.

Many middle-class Mexicans now have something to lose. "(With Calderon) we'll have stability," said 36-year-old aerobics teacher Maripi Ablanedo Vargas, who bought a house with a mortgage thanks to lower interest rates.

"(Lopez Obrador) only speaks about raising wages, but where's the money going to come from? He'll increase debts, everything will rise, inflation," Vargas added. For Vargas, these benefits under Fox are in danger from Lopez Obrador's populist anti-poverty crusade, which she fears will mean a return to wasteful high spending.

Calderon is hoping to follow the electoral successes of pro-US conservatives like Colombian President Alvaro Uribe.

But many other Latin Americans are rebelling against decades of market reforms and millions of poor Mexicans distrust conservatives. They feel governments like Fox's benefit the rich and do little to create jobs.

Much of Calderon's support comes from northern Mexico, where factories catering to US consumers have led to rising wages, auto and housing booms. Lopez Obrador's support is strongest in southern states, where poverty is endemic.

Calderon, a 43-year-old lawyer, was for months an underdog in the race. His message of continuity from Fox was uninspiring for many Mexicans who packed rallies to hear the more charismatic Lopez Obrador promise better pensions and health care.

But Calderon gathered support midway through the campaign by playing on fears of radicalism, portraying Lopez Obrador as "danger for Mexico.