Editorial

For a government, doing what is popular is not necessarily doing what is right. Sometimes "bitter medicine" must be administered for the "patient" to recover. One recalls the alliterative, if highly arguable, Labour Party slogan in the 1971 election campaign: Malta marida, medicina Mintoff (Malta is sick, Mintoff is the cure). The MLP leader, Dom Mintoff, went on to win a narrow victory over Borg Olivier's Nationalists - and stay in power for almost 16 years.

Some bitter medicine is being administered by the present Nationalist government. Led by Dr Lawrence Gonzi for the last two years, it has had to cope with the rigorous demands of adapting to European Union membership, whose long-term benefits are still to be felt, and with the stringent requirements of economic convergence for joining the euro.

In this, except for a slightly higher than average inflation rate, and a still high public debt/GDP ratio, Government seems to be meeting its targets.

The end would seem to justify the sometimes drastic means, as Malta's economy should be in better shape by the time we join the euro (by January 1, 2008, it is hoped). And once in the Eurozone, the island's export trade and tourism should receive a considerable boost.

However, reaching the targets is being hampered by the continuous rise in the price of oil on the international markets. This is hurting hotels, catering establishments, manufacturing, businesses - and households. And unless a serious campaign to cut energy consumption and to switch to alternative sources of fuel is undertaken, the position is bound to worsen, with even modest economic targets slipping further and further out of reach.

So it is no wonder that public sentiment, as expressed in our latest opinion survey, is decidedly one of disaffection with the government. The survey measured that disaffection at over 80 per cent, which means it is cutting across party loyalties. And the disaffection is based not, as one would presume, on administrative failings, but on economic grounds: the high cost of living tops the list of grievances, followed by the new taxes (designed to reduce the deficit), and the high cost of water and electricity (which in turn is fuelling inflation).

This widely held perception is in line with statistics released by the GRTU showing a drop in business, ranging up to 30 per cent, recorded by over half its members. Actually, according to our survey, opinion is almost equally divided between those who agree that the government's policies are improving the economy and increasing work opportunities, and those who don't. The latest, encouraging GDP growth figure of 3.1 per cent for the first quarter of this year would seem to support the former. Yet in politics, perceptions count more than facts.

The assessment of Dr Gonzi's performance as prime minister is more negative: while 41 per cent described the way he is running the country as 'bad', and an additional 3.7 per cent said it is 'very bad', only 13 per cent appraised it positively, with 39 per cent saying it was neither good nor bad.

The quite substantial foreign direct investment announced in recent months - SmartCity, the Tecom purchase of, and investment in, Maltacom, the HSBC call centre, the French companies setting up shop by the end of the year, and various others - have yet to come on stream, so these projects have obviously not figured in respondents' considerations.

In fact, the vast majority of respondents - 87 per cent - consider their own personal financial situation to be worsening. The higher cost of living (and higher water and electricity bills) must account for much of this perception.

Yet, despite the gloomy news for the government, Dr Gonzi still manages to pull ahead of the Labour leader, Dr Alfred Sant - if ever so slightly - when it comes to who would make a better prime minister. And although those willing to identify themselves as Labour supporters outnumber their Nationalist counterparts by 25 per cent to 14 per cent, an enormous chunk of the electorate - 42.7 per cent - would not commit themselves for any party, while 17 per cent are determined not to vote. With voter turnout at the last three general elections averaging 95 per cent, the last figure is bound to change substantially.

These findings strengthen the argument of those who believe that the feel-good factor determines the outcome of a general election. In other words, in the absence of a dominant issue (such as EU membership in the last general election in 2003), it is the economy and its performance, and their personal economic situation, which leads the electorate to vote in a particular way.

Obviously, Dr Gonzi and his government hope that the economy would improve enough by the next general election (due in 2008) for them to receive another mandate.