Al Qaeda leader death a relief, but no cure, for Bush

The death of Iraq al Qaeda leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi gave President George W. Bush a long-awaited military success, but analysts said political benefits would be hard to reap with an American public skeptical of the war.

Growing worries about Iraq have helped drive Mr Bush's public approval ratings to around 35 per cent, near the lowest of his presidency. Zarqawi's death is likely to provide only short-term relief, if that, they said.

"Attitudes about the war, if not set in stone, are very hardened. I doubt if it has much of an impact on public opinion," said Karlyn Bowman, a public opinion analyst at the conservative American Enterprise Institute.

The strike was the most tangible US military success in Iraq since the capture of former President Saddam Hussein in December 2003. But Saddam's capture gave Mr Bush only a brief bump in polls and did little to ease violence. The insurgency has grown since then. After the Zarqawi announcement, a string of bombs in Baghdad killed at least 31 people.

"There was definitely a blip of support for Mr Bush after Saddam's capture, but that was so much earlier in the war. People were more hopeful then," Ms Bowman said.

Both supporters and critics of Mr Bush's war strategy praised Zarqawi's killing in a bombing raid northeast of Baghdad. Mr Bush said the death provided the new Iraqi government a chance to "turn the tide" in Iraq, but added tough days remain ahead.

"With regard to the insurgency in Iraq, the military has chopped off the head of this snake, and I think we're all going to be safer as a result," said House Republican Leader John Boehner of Ohio. But members of both political parties said the long-term implications of Zarqawi's death on the insurgency in Iraq and the government's ability to guarantee security would take time to determine.

"This is a victory. This is significant, but this does not peace make," Democratic Senator Joseph Biden of Delaware said on NBC's Today show.

Zarqawi's death, along with the naming of defence and interior ministers by the new Iraqi government, laid a foundation for improvement in public attitudes about the war, Republican consultant Whit Ayres said.

"Don't underestimate the impact of a significant piece of positive news. It's been a long time since we've had good news out of Iraq," Mr Ayres said.

Democratic pollster Doug Schoen said conditions in Iraq in the days ahead would determine whether Mr Bush and Republicans benefited politically before November's mid-term election that will determine control of Congress.

"It's huge. Every American will applaud it as a success for American and Iraqi security, but the political benefits are less apparent," Mr Schoen said.

Mr Bush himself struck a cautious note and the administration discouraged predictions that Zarqawi's death would significantly curtail the insurgency.

"If he keeps saying we're making progress but the insurgency will continue - that's a mixed message. It doesn't change much," Ms Bowman said.

A survey released by pollster John Zogby said even the capture of Osama bin Laden, al Qaeda leader and mastermind of the September 11 attacks, would have little impact on Mr Bush's popularity.

"The problem for the President is that the country is badly split over the war, and those who oppose it are unlikely to change their minds because of a single development," Mr Zogby said.