The climate refugees

Think of a world in which the 600 inhabitants of an Alaskan village sue the US government for melting down the Arctic: "Your Honour, the plaintiffs submit that all those greenhouse gases have made the seals, caribou and bears vanish, and the land- and seascapes change radically. My clients feel like strangers in their own land. They have to relocate the entire town at the cost of $100,000 per resident".

Think of an Oceanic people, inhabitants of an atoll, who know that, some time this century, climate change may destroy their island. The Australian government's chief economic adviser has already stated, at an international conference, that it would be "more efficient" to vacate those islands than to have Australia reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide. So what can the islanders do? They negotiate migration rights to New Zealand for the entire population in case of serious climate change impacts.

The Alaskans have not yet sued the US government; but otherwise everything else mentioned in the foregoing two paragraphs has happened. It is documented, for example, in Tim Flannery's fascinating book The Weather Makers: The History And Future Impact Of Climate Change (Allen Lane). Welcome to the world of climate refugees - coming soon to a political theatre near you.

The political aspect of climate change needs to be underlined. Next Monday is Environment Day and bears the EU theme of climate change. Chris Ciantar, the director of environmental policy and initiatives at the Environment Ministry, has admitted to some frustration about the lack of Maltese awareness about the issue. But much of the blame can be laid at the door of successive governments since 1988.

Read this slowly: Climate change, as an international political issue, was brought to the world's attention by Malta. It was back in September 1988 when Malta requested that the issue of climate change be placed on the agenda of the 43rd session of the General Assembly of the United Nations, with the aim of creating a global response to climate change. It was already urgent then: two years before, according to Mr Flannery, "humans reached earth's carrying capacity, and ever since we have been running the environmental equivalent of a deficit budget, which is only sustained by plundering our capital base".

Since Malta took that initiative, however, it has undergone a kind of double institutional amnesia. First, Maltese institutions appear to have forgotten that Malta ever made the proposal. How else to explain that the Maltese initiative is never mentioned these days? The new co-owners of the idea are Tony Blair (since the late 1990s) and the former US Vice-President Albert (Al) Gore, now promoting his film on the subject (it should be said, however, that the then Senator Gore was an early supporter of the Maltese proposal).

That forgetfulness perhaps matters less than the second kind. The Maltese initiative insisted on the political and legal aspects of the issue - not just the science or the consumer aspects. Of course, Dr Ciantar, as an Environment Ministry official, cannot go beyond his remit; given his role, it is perfectly sensible to insist on ways in which people at home can do their bit to reduce the production of greenhouse gases. It is also true that Environment Minister George Pullicino has discussed, with his Italian counterpart, how Malta and Italy should deal with cross-boundary pollution.

But there are other, large strategic issues that should concern the government as a whole.

Go back to the sizzling European summer of 2003. It was so exceptionally hot that Mr Flannery reckons that the chances of it occurring should have been one in 46,000 years. Some 26,000 people died that June and July. (And the following year, Egypt recorded a day in which the temperature reached 51°C.)

But was it really so exceptional? In the near future, such summers may occur ever more frequently. Europe is particularly affected by climate change: a rise of two degrees across the world may mean, in fact, a rise of 4.5 degrees in Europe. By 2050, unless we change course, England may have a Mediterranean climate.

The welfare gap and pensions crisis, which most of us recognise needs immediate action, is a crisis that reaches its crunch in 2040. The climate change crunch comes along only 10 years later - and with much more severe effects. The change in climate will affect the life-blood of cities the world over: their networks of resources - water, food and power. Cities, Mr Flannery vividly shows, could dry up like parched plants.

The effects will not be uniform. Global warming will benefit the agricultural base of Canada and Russia, but it will badly hit that of Africa and India. Malta needs to evaluate, as a matter of priority, the impact of climate change on its security - its economic and political security, as much as the environmental one.

We cannot figure out what is likely to happen to us unless we appraise what is likely to happen to our neighbours. What will climate change do to our tourism? Property prices? Talented people? Will we become climate refugees or will climate refugees come our way? Are climate refugees coming our way likely to be the desperate poor, or the privileged who can afford to move to a place of their choice (and can thus be given incentives to come to Malta)?

We need to make up our minds, however provisionally, so that we can begin to act. If inaction on pension schemes is irresponsible, so is inaction on climate change.

ranierfsadni@europe.com