Hotspot for climate change

Experts on tropical glaciers have been racing with climate change to reach one of the loneliest places on the planet before it melts. Seldom visited by local tribes, the highlands of New Guinea are shielded from watchful satellites by constant cloud cover. Critical information on how the climate works is locked inside these glaciers at the heart of the El Niño region where Pacific ocean temperatures are warmer than usual.

The glaciers around Mount Jaya have retreated 300 metres over the past three decades, displaying the highest rate of global warming for the region. New species, such as a tree kangaroo, which have only just been discovered on this vast Asian island, are under threat from the rise in temperature. Habitats in the higher altitudes are heating up more quickly than the lowlands.

Another shock surprise this year has been the dramatic slowing of vital Atlantic Ocean currents. If the trend is to continue, scientists fear that it might plunge Europe into winter.

A climate change index has been developed to rank regions according to the severity of climate change expected by the end of this century. The Mediterranean can expect less rainfall overall but more variability in summer rain, making both droughts and flash floods more likely. Also high on the list of climate change extremes is north eastern Europe which looks set to see more snow.

Climate change is no longer perceived as predominantly an environmental issue, but is beginning to impact directly on people's lives. The carbon-based economy has been described as an "uncontrolled experiment" with the global climate, with serious risks for ecosystems, business and human health.

It was noted at a UN climate meeting in New York held earlier this month that climate impacts will affect not only the environment but also social and economic systems. Agricultural production and food security, fisheries, coastal zone management and public health are all threatened.

We may not be preparing ourselves well enough for the risk of abrupt and runaway climate change. Damages from rising seas, extreme weather and ecosystem collapse are already becoming apparent. We can pay the price in terms of renewable energy, energy efficiency and emission reduction investments now... or we can pay later, perhaps with our lives.

Rapid and more frequent climatic changes are now becoming increasingly apparent to most countries and the next five to 20 years are expected to show more examples of adverse impacts while current investments to mitigate the causes are negligible.

The EU has decided to meet its requirements to offset climate change under the Kyoto Protocol as a whole, rather than as individual signatories, with each member state given a different emissions target by the EU Commission. The targeted cut in greenhouse gas emissions by at least five per cent below 1990 levels must be met between 2008 and 2012.

Emissions trading has been introduced to give some flexibility while keeping total emissions within the overall capped level. Individual installations may emit more than their allocation on condition that they can find another trader that has emitted less than allowed and is willing to sell their unused allowance. A draft of the National Allocation Plan for Malta for 2008-2012 is open for public comment on the MEPA Website until May 29.

Costing the changes

An estimate that it would take $325 billion for the United States to meet the Kyoto Protocol targets on cutting emissions led the Bush administration to claim that the benefits did not justify its costs. As The Washington Post of May 9 has pointed out, the cost of the Iraq war, now in excess of $300 billion, is close to what it would cost the US to implement the Kyoto Protocol. This amount is exactly what the World Bank estimates it would cost to meet the needs of people in developing countries through more efficient and cleaner sources of energy.

The European Environment Agency calculates that action to combat climate change will deliver considerable benefits. Europe would save €10 billion a year on air pollution control and see 20,000 fewer premature deaths with a drop in damage to ecosystems. The price for conventional energy sources has been increasing and will do so further, but the price for renewable energy will decrease due to the development of technologies and economies of scale.

Surprisingly, funding for EU research projects in renewable energy and energy efficiency have dropped. The inter-parliamentary European Forum for Renewable Energy Sources has urged that the research budget for renewables in the upcoming FP-7 research programme must be significantly increased.

It may be some time before renewable energy sources are able to deliver the large amounts of energy required for bulk energy for most countries. The National Commission for Sustainable Development which met earlier this month augured that appropriate policies and incentives combined with more resources for research and development could shorten this time.