Milan - genuine contenders or mere pretenders?

Tonight at the Nou Camp, Milan face an uphill task to overturn a 0-1 deficit against Champions League favourites Barcelona and reach the May 17 final in Paris.

Although qualification is still within Milan's reach, they must give a great performance tonight if they are to reach their third European Cup final in four years.

In the Serie A title race, the Rossoneri are back in business even if, realistically-speaking, it is very difficult to see Juventus giving up top spot having led the standings from the word go.

Unlike tonight's crunching semi-final in Spain, Milan do not have their destiny in their own hands in the Serie A.

Against Barcelona last week, Milan were the better team until they conceded Ludovic Giuly's 57th-minute goal. Carlo Ancelotti's men not only enjoyed territorial superiority but also created a number of open scoring chances.

If there was a team that deserved to take the lead, especially in the first half, it was Milan.

Frank Rijkaard's Barcelona played a containing game. The Primera Liga leaders spent most of the time defending possession in their own half, leaving Milan with the onus to attack and therefore, run the risk of leaving open spaces which could consequently be exploited by their deadly attacking trio of Samuel Eto'o, Ronaldinho and Giuly.

Giuly's stunning winner was the turning point of the game and possibly, of the whole tie. It instilled fresh confidence in the Barcelona players but dealt a devastating blow to Milan's morale.

The way Milan performed after they conceded that goal was typical of a team that had given up hope of going through.

Indeed, one expected much better from a team like Milan who boast several skilful and experienced players.

A brilliant display might still not be enough for Milan to qualify tonight. They will be facing arguably the best European team at present.

And on top of that, Milan are playing away from home. The Italians must play a perfect game in Spain to reach their target... they have to score goals and not concede any, although a 2-1 win would still see Milan through.

From a purely physical point-of-view, Barcelona have an edge over Milan after their game against Sevilla on Sunday was postponed due to a waterlogged pitch.

Also, Milan have lately intensified their efforts in the league in the hope of closing in on a Juve side who seem to be running out of steam.

Comfortable lead

On the other hand, Barcelona have a comfortable lead at the top of the Primera Liga and this has inevitably enabled them to focus their energies almost exclusively on winning their first European Cup since 1992 (vs Sampdoria 1-0 at the Wembley Stadium).

If Milan have a 30-70 per cent ratio of moving past Barcelona today, they have even lesser chances to reclaim the domestic title from Juventus.

Ancelotti acknowledged this but said Milan will be ready to pounce if Juventus slip up.

In the event that Juventus and Milan finish the season level on points, under the new rules introduced this season whereby play-offs have been abolished, Milan would win the scudetto on the strength of their better record in direct encounters with the Turin giants.

Milan have a small advantage over Juve in that they still have to play two of their remaining three fixtures at home - vs Livorno and Roma. Both games could be won, especially now that Roma seem to be out of contention for a Champions League slot.

Milan's last away fixture is against Parma, a mid-table side harbouring no aspirations for glory.

Juve, on their part, have two of their last three games away from the Delle Alpi stadium. They travel to Siena on Sunday and to Reggio Calabria on the last day. Juve's last home match is against Palermo.

On paper, Juve are surely strong enough to win their last three games. At worst, they need seven of the last nine points to retain the crown.

Although nothing can be taken for granted, especially with the out-of-form Juventus of late, I still consider remote an eventual Milan triumph in Serie A this season.

Naturally, I stand to be corrected.

Serie A Statistics

1st win for back-to-form Livorno after seven straight defeats as Carlo Mazzone's side returned to winning ways with a display full of attacking verve. Palermo's slim hopes of claiming a UEFA Cup berth for next season were shattered after going down to Livorno for the first time since March 5, 1967 (2-1 in Serie B). For the record, Palermo's most recent of three wins in 17 league visits to Livorno's Armando Picchi stadium dates back to May 27, 1956 (3-2 in Serie B). Siena inched nearer to safety after they held on to a precious 1-1 draw with Parma at the Tardini stadium. Siena have never come out of Parma with a win. On the other hand, a Parma home win against Siena has been missing since February 26, 1978 (2-1 in Serie C).

2 teams are already doomed to Serie B. On Saturday, Lecce became the second side to be relegated after the southerners could not go beyond a 1-1 draw with bottom side Treviso at their Via del Mare stadium. Saturday's draw left Lecce still in search of their first home win over Treviso. Inter bounced back from their 0-1 defeat in the derby against Milan as they trounced lowly Reggina to the tune of 4-0. Inter's third win in six Serie A home encounters with Reggina was never in jeopardy as they scored three times inside the opening 28 minutes. Reggina seemed to be reserving their best for next weekend's make-or-break clash at home against Messina. A draw on Sunday will be enough to help Reggina stave off relegation for yet another season.

3 wins and two draws have been registered by Udinese since new coach Giovanni Galeone took over from Nestor Sensini. On Saturday, the Friulani made yet another big step towards confirming their Serie A status as they shared the spoils with Chievo for the first time in almost two years. Udinese were well on their way to beat Chievo for the second season running but a last-gasp Sergio Pellissier penalty goal ruined their plans. Chievo's only win in Friuli dates back to September 30, 2001 (2-1). Cagliari recorded their fourth successive draw as they held on to a vital 2-2 draw against Ascoli. Nedo Sonetti's side were 0-1 down when they were reduced to nine men after barely 23 minutes had elapsed. When Cagliari's first away defeat against Ascoli since September 15, 1985 (3-0 in Serie B) seemed inevitable, the Sardinians hit back with two quick David Suazo goals. Towards the end, Ascoli needed a penalty to avoid their first home defeat against Cagliari since April 18, 1992 (3-1 in Serie A).

4th win for Milan in as many Serie A visits to Messina's San Filippo stadium as the Rossoneri came from behind to win 3-1. The victory took Milan just three points adrift of long-time leaders Juventus whereas it left Messina in deep relegation trouble. Giampiero Ventura's side are now four points behind fourth-from-bottom Cagliari. Juventus' negative run continued after they shared the spoils with Lazio for the first time in over four years. Juve's fifth successive draw coincided with Lazio's fifth positive result in a row (three wins and two draws).

8 years had to pass for Fiorentina to return to winning ways against neighbours Empoli at their Artemio Franchi stadium, 2-1. The Viola consolidated their fourth place after they handed Empoli their first defeat after five wins and a draw. Fiorentina and Empoli have not shared the spoils since a goalless draw on February 14, 1988. Roma's chances of a Champions League slot were severely dented by Sampdoria after the Giallorossi were held 0-0 at the Olimpico. It was the second successive draw between these two sides in the capital. After the weekend's fixtures, Roma trail Fiorentina by three points. Saturday's draw was Samp's first positive result away after four defeats.

10 players, Christian Ledesma (Lecce), Philippe Mexes (Roma), Giuseppe Sculli, Antonio Nocerino, Salvatore Aronica (all Messina), Clarence Seedorf (Milan), Ousmane Dabo (Lazio), Michele Canini, Francesco Bega (both Cagliari) and Domenico Cristiano (Ascoli), received marching orders. Also, four penalties were awarded by referees on Saturday. Livorno's Cristiano Lucarelli broke the deadlock against Palermo from the spot as did Inter's Julio Cruz. On the other hand, Maurizio Domizzi hit a late equaliser for Ascoli against nine-man Cagliari from the 11 metres. Finally, Sergio Pellissier grabbed a vital equaliser for Chievo against Udinese by converting a last-minute penalty.

27 goals were scored on the 35th day: 16 coming from the hosts and the remaining 11 from the visitors, who managed only one win (Milan's 3-1 drubbing of Messina). Foreigners contributed with 12 goals while there were 13 first-half goals. No own goals were committed. Total number of goals scored so far amount to 911. Even though Luca Toni was not on target for Fiorentina, he still remained top marksman in the division with 28 goals (two from penalties). The Italy striker is closely followed by Juve marksman David Trezeguet on the 21-goal mark. Last season's top-scorer Cristiano Lucarelli notched a vital hat-trick that helped Livorno end their barren run of seven consecutive defeats. Cruz (Inter) and David Suazo (Cagliari) grabbed the only braces of the day. Three players, Domenico Morfeo (Parma), Reginaldo (Treviso) and Marek Jankulovski (Milan) came on as substitutes and found the net.