Italy's leading pollsters came under heavy fire yesterday after predicting that centre-left leader Romano Prodi would win a clear victory over Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi in a general election.

Twelve hours after voting ended and exit polls forecasted an unambiguous Prodi win, official results suggested the centre-left had secured the smallest winning margin in modern Italian history - a margin that Mr Berlusconi was contesting.

While politicians cried foul over the outcome, both sides seemed to agree on one thing - the polls were wrong.

"If there's somebody who really lost the elections, it's the exit polls," said Alfonso Pecoraro Scanio, leader of the opposition Greens party. Two polling agencies used by seven major television stations had forecast after voting ended at 3 p.m. (1300 GMT) on Monday that Mr Prodi would win both houses of Parliament and with them control of the next government. The Nexus research institute used by Rai state television saw Mr Prodi with 50 to 54 per cent of the Senate and lower house.

Then, as the results started rolling in, the pollsters adjusted their forecasts.

Nexus switched tack and predicted that Mr Berlusconi would win. Then as the official tally dragged into the early hours of yesterday, it declined to declare a winner, saying the vote in both houses was balanced on a knife's edge.

The Piepoli pollster used by Sky Italia TV stuck with its prediction that Mr Prodi would win both houses.

"It seems to me at this point that only one thing is certain - the exit polls were completely wrong," said Roberto Calderoli, a former minister in Mr Berlusconi's government. The controversy drew comparisons with the close US presidential election of 2000, which began with pollsters' miscalculations and ended with a bitter Florida recount battle.

"The level pegging is very similar to what happened in Florida. With one vote more or one vote less, you lose or you win," said Labour Minister Roberto Maroni, shortly before the centre left claimed victory. It was not the first time that Italian pollsters had to switch tack. In 1996, a polling agency first called the lower house for Mr Berlusconi then predicted a hung Parliament.

In the end, Mr Prodi and his allies won a majority in both houses.

"It's a difficult job, because you're working with statistics and there are margins of error. It's complicated," Nexus executive Fabrizio Masia told Rai state television.

"It's clear that one vote is enough to turn these percentages and the seats could go to (Mr Prodi)." Nexus was not the only one who underestimated Mr Berlusconi.

Pollsters had been steadily giving the centre-left opposition a 3.5-5.0 percentage point lead for weeks.

Respected Italian pollster Renato Mannheimer suggested that people might have been reticent over their intention to vote for Mr Berlusconi, a flamboyant leader who in the final days of his campaign promised to scrap unpopular taxes if re-elected.

"Beyond the technical problem, what I see is a big political problem," Mr Mannheimer said.

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