Kadima set to win Israeli election

Israeli interim Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's Kadima party was set to win an election yesterday seen as a referendum on the future of the occupied West Bank, exit polls showed.

Mr Olmert aims, in the absence of progress towards peace, to impose a border on the Palestinians by dismantling isolated Jewish settlements in the West Bank by 2010 and expanding bigger blocs in the territory.

Palestinians say such go-it-alone moves, sweeping measures that would uproot tens of thousands of settlers while tracing a frontier along a fortified barrier Israel is building inside the West Bank, would deny them a viable state.

Exit polls broadcast by Israeli media after voting ended gave Kadima 29-32 seats in the 120-member parliament, slightly below predictions in pre-election surveys but still putting it in a good position to form a governing coalition.

The new polls forecast centre-left Labour would receive 20-22 seats and the far-right Yisrael Beitenu party 13-14. In a sharp setback for former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his right-wing Likud was projected to get only about 12 seats.

"In any final outcome, this is a victory for Kadima. Kadima will form the government," Defence Minister Shaul Mofaz, one of the party's leaders, told Channel Two television.

Unilateralism appeals to many Israelis worn down by a five-year-old Palestinian uprising and concerned by the rise to power of Hamas in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip after the Islamist militant group won elections in January.

"I hope we can reach a peace deal with the Palestinians or at the very least separate ourselves from them. We have no other choice," said Hanan Yoran, 43, after voting in Tel Aviv.

Near-final results should be available early today.

Israelis voted on the same day the Palestinian parliament approved a Hamas government. The group, formally sworn to Israel's destruction, called for a "just peace" on Monday but has shown no sign of softening its stance on the Jewish state.

"While the election is being held in the Israeli entity, the flags of the Hamas government are being raised," Hamas's Prime Minister-designate Ismail Haniyeh told a rally in Gaza.

Commenting on the exit polls, Mr Haniyeh told Reuters: "Let's see how things develop in the future. At the moment what we see and what is declared is Olmert's unilateral separation plan - and this is rejected by the Palestinian people."

For Mr Olmert, victory would mean approval of "consolidation", his term for the unilateral steps he plans should Hamas refuse to recognise Israel, disarm and accept interim peace accords.

The World Court has ruled that all of the 145 settlements Israel has built on occupied territory are illegal. Israel disputes this.

The trauma, for settlers, of any withdrawal from land they see as a biblical birthright could dwarf that of last year's Gaza pullout, which then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon championed in a reversal of policy.

Mr Sharon founded Kadima last November after bolting Likud, where far-right members revolted over the Gaza withdrawal. He suffered a stroke in January and fell into a coma.

Some 60,000 West Bank settlers could be affected by Mr Olmert's plan, far more than the 8,500 removed from Gaza. Around 240,000 Israelis live among 2.4 million Palestinians in the West Bank, territory Israel captured in the 1967 Middle East war.

"This is a battle for our homes," said Eitan Meshulam, a West Bank settler.

Israeli right-wingers say removing more settlements would reward and encourage Palestinian violence.

Opinion polls published at the close of a lacklustre but high-stakes campaign had predicted a Kadima victory, with Labour a likely coalition partner. A new coalition government is also likely to include at least one of the smaller parties.

"I am quite satisfied. This party is now considered a serious party, and this is a success story tonight," said Collette Avital, a senior Labour Party member.

Israeli President Moshe Katsav is expected to delegate the task of putting together a government after consultations with parties on Sunday.

Usually, the job goes to the leader of the party that garners the most seats in the national ballot. The would-be prime minister has up to 42 days to form a government.