Merkel's prolonged honeymoon

Angela Merkel has been Chancellor of Germany for almost 100 days and seems to be enjoying a remarkably long honeymoon with the German electorate - a recent opinion poll gave her an approval rating of 80 per cent, an unprecedented level of support for any German Chancellor. She is considered to be doing particularly well in foreign policy and reasonably well in domestic policy, although many challenges lie ahead; certainly her international image is very positive indeed.

Like Helmut Kohl, her Christian Democratic predecessor who governed Germany from 1982 to 1998, Ms Merkel was dismissed by many sections of the media, both foreign and international, as a dull, boring politician with little charisma, experience or vision when she took over the CDU a few years ago.

This has proved to be wrong - just as it was wrong in the case of Helmut Kohl who won four consecutive national elections - in 1983, 1986, 1990 and 1994. I am not predicting that Ms Merkel will do the same - after all she rules in coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD), her traditional opponents - only that she has the potential to be a great leader.

To understand why Ms Merkel has managed to be so successful so far one has to look at her recent history. An East German, she was identified by Mr Kohl for her talent soon after German reunification and given a seat in the Cabinet. She then cleverly manoeuvred herself within the corridors of power in the CDU until she managed to become party leader in 2000. She became the first Easterner, the first Protestant and the first woman to head the CDU, which together with the SPD, has dominated German post-war politics.

Since she became party leader she also managed to fight off potential challenges to her leadership and to her candidacy for Chancellor last year. However, in 2002, she agreed to back Edmond Stoiber, head of the CDU's Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), as the Christian Democrats candidate for Chancellor.

So although she is a very determined and tough politician, she also knows when it is better not to fight a political battle, which means she has sharp political instincts. She also spent two months last year negotiating a 'grand coalition' with the SPD, not an easy task, but which in the end was successfully concluded.

It is on the international front where Ms Merkel seems to have been most successful so far. Relations with Washington, strained somewhat during Gerhard Schröder's chancellorship - principally because of Iraq - have improved considerably. A recent visit to the United States and a meeting with President Bush seem to have gone very well. Chancellor Merkel reiterated Germany's position that the Guantanamo Bay detention centre should be closed in the long term, but despite this difference of opinion with the White House, relations between the two sides seem to have improved overall.

Furthermore, the German Chancellor has often emphasised the importance of NATO for European security and has been highly critical of Iran's nuclear ambitions - both these positions are no doubt greatly welcomed in Washington where Berlin is now probably regarded as a more reliable international partner. Since strong transatlantic ties are crucial to international peace and security and Germany is Europe's largest country, this strengthening of ties between Germany and the US can therefore only be regarded as positive.

In Europe, Ms Merkel, although still keen on the Franco-German special relationship, has established close links with British Prime Minister Tony Blair. During last December's European Union summit, which was dominated by the bloc's next budget, she acted as a deal maker between Britain and France instead of automatically supporting the French. This helped an agreement to be reached, and highlighted the German Chancellor's diplomatic skills.

Ms Merkel has also won admiration in the new East European EU member states for criticising Russia's swing towards autocracy - in contrast to Chancellor Schröder, who had established a very close relationship with President Vladimir Putin and who was reluctant to criticise any of his policies. Ms Merkel has already visited Russia where she reiterated the importance of strong German-Russian ties but she made it clear that she would not remain silent if Moscow turns its back on democracy.

Domestically, things seem to be improving although a lot still needs to be done and these are early days yet. However, the economy seems to be bouncing back, business confidence is at an all-time high and exports are doing well. "In case you missed it, Germany is no longer the sick man of Europe," according to Elga Bartsch, an economist at Morgan Stanley, an investment bank. This year Ms Bartsch predicts that the economy will grow by 1.8 per cent, the highest since 2000.

To be fair, some credit for this must go to the previous SPD government led by Mr Schröder which initiated some economic reforms. Last month, however, the number of unemployed was still at the five million mark, so only when this is reduced can we can that the economy is really doing well.

There is no doubt that as far as domestic policy is concerned Ms Merkel's hands are tied to a certain extent by her SPD coalition partners, and there is so much that needs to be done: the reform of the labour market and the health, education and the public sector, for a start. Perhaps if the economy does keep growing things will really improve and serious reform will come about. Perhaps, also, the coalition's planned VAT increases for next year - which might hurt a recovery - will not materialise.

In any case, it is possible that Ms Merkel will decide to call an early election in two years' time - if her popularity continues - with the hope of winning an outright majority together with her Liberal partners. She will then be able to govern without the SPD and perhaps only then will she be able to be as successful in domestic policy as she has so far been in foreign policy.