Hamas' electoral bombshell

Just when the whole world was looking forward to a victory by the Kadima Party in Israel's March general election and a consequent boost for peace in the Middle East, Hamas wins the Palestinian parliamentary elections, throwing the whole peace process into turmoil. Hamas, which has committed numerous acts of terrorism against civilian Israeli targets, does not recognise Israel's right to exist and aims to establish an Islamic state in Palestine. Its charter calls for the destruction of the State of Israel.

The optimists can say that the Palestinian people have exercised their democratic right to vote and that the high 77 per cent turnout in the Palestinian territories is a sign of a healthy democracy. However, there is surely more to it than that. At first glance, this latest development is not good news at all. Hamas' electoral victory is bound to have wide implications for the Middle East peace process, the Islamic world, the Palestinian people, Israeli politics and European and American foreign policy.

Hamas won 76 seats out of 132 in the National Assembly, with Fatah, which has long dominated Palestinian politics and which is headed by President Mahmoud Abbas, getting 43. Prime Minister Ahmed Qurie has resigned and made it clear that Fatah will not join Hamas in any government.

It is now up to President Abbas to appoint a new Prime Minister, which will usher in a sort of cohabitation between a Hamas-dominated Cabinet and a Fatah President. It will be interesting to see how the transfer of power from Fatah to Hamas is carried out. The clashes on the streets between supporters of the two main blocs is certainly not encouraging, but we will have to wait and see.

Founded only in 1987 during the first Palestinian intifada, Hamas has consistently ruled out any negotiations with Israel, resorted to violence - it is branded a terrorist organisation by the European Union, Israel and the United States - and most importantly ran a generous welfare system for its people. Many Palestinians also viewed it as a non-corrupt party. Hamas is divided into two main areas of operations, namely social programmes like schools, hospitals and religious institutions, and its military wing which carried out attacks against Israelis, including suicide bombings against civilians. Whether it will now reject violence remains to be seen.

A major factor which contributed to Hamas' victory is no doubt its record as a provider of basic services for the Palestinian people, something which the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority often failed to do, as well as its law and order platform. Corruption in the Palestinian government also led to anger among many voters, who turned to Hamas - which was regarded as having a clean record.

However, it also has to be pointed out that the repeated Israeli military attacks against the infrastructure of the Palestinian Authority, which slowly destroyed it, often prevented the Palestinian government from carrying out its duties towards its people.

Furthermore, it must be said that Hamas' popularity also grew as a result of Israel's iron-fisted policies in the occupied territories, many of which were not acceptable such as the demolition of Palestinian houses and the daily hardships associated with occupation. Israel's policy of assassinating Hamas leaders also seems to have proved counter-productive: the more assassinations, the more Hamas seems to have grown in popularity. I am not saying that Israel is responsible for Hamas' victory; I am saying that it bears some of the responsibility.

The reaction of the outside world was as expected: Hamas must reject violence and recognise Israel's right to exist. Israeli Interim Prime Minister Ehud Olmert ruled out any talks with "an armed terror organisation that calls for Israel's destruction". The 'Quartet' - the US, UN, EU and Russia - issued a statement calling on Hamas to renounce violence and accept Israel's existence. President Bush said the US will not deal with Hamas unless it rejected its call for Israel's destruction.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair said: "It is important for Hamas to understand that there comes a point - and that point is now following that strong showing - where they have to decide between a path of democracy or a path of violence". In Brussels Elmar Brok, the chairman of the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, said: "European Union funding for Palestine has to be stopped if Hamas as the party in government does not renounce violence and its aim to destroy Israel".

The response of the international community is correct. There is no way anybody can talk to Hamas unless it rejects violence and recognises Israel. The EU - the Palestinians' largest donor - will be right to stop all its funding unless Hamas adopts a new approach.

Shimon Peres, the former Israeli Prime Minister who joined the new Kadima party, summed it up rightly when he said in reaction to the Hamas victory: "I think it is first of all a problem for the Palestinian people, not for Israel, because Hamas is for a unilateral war not for a unilateral peace or withdrawal. We shall not change our position. If Hamas doesn't want peace, doesn't want negotiations, if they want to continue their terrorist activities I don't think they will have any support from outside or from Israel."

Mr Peres is right. Although this result does create problems for Israel, Hamas has now been given the responsibility of governing as a result of an election. Fatah - rightly so - has said it will not govern with Hamas so that the militant group will know what it means to be in office and to deal with Israeli occupation. What can Hamas gain by continuing to resort to terrorism? They cannot defeat Israel militarily and Israel can reoccupy all the Palestinian territories overnight if it wants to. Hamas will not get a penny of international aid and will be isolated unless it rejects violence.

What about the imposition of Islamic law? Will Hamas try to impose its rigid religious beliefs over the whole population including thousands of Palestinian Christians? This would be a grave mistake, especially since Palestinians are mostly secular, tolerant of other religions and those who voted for Hamas did so because they were disillusioned with Fatah - not because they want Islamic law.

Hamas' electoral success will no doubt encourage other Islamist parties in the Arab world, which is unfortunate, although each country has its own set of particular circumstances, and it could also convince Israelis to vote for the right-wing Likud Party in the country's election in March. That would also be unfortunate. Coupled with a Hamas government, the peace process would definitely go into a deep freeze if that had to happen.

Perhaps, however, faced with the burden of government, Hamas will adopt a pragmatic approach. After all, Hamas' participation in these elections signifies a de facto recognition of the Oslo accords and Israel's right to exist, something which Hamas has so far rejected. Only time will tell.