The general election might still be many months away - although I do not rule out an October 2007 poll to avoid the inevitable inflationary fallout from the introduction of the euro. But it is already becoming evident from the way the governing party has been repositioning itself that we could be heading for a US Presidential-style election campaign.

The temptation to do so is increasing the more the Nationalist Cabinet comes across as a jaded lot, lacking innovative ideas and creative sparks.

Since all indications seem to suggest that the Prime Minister is likely to push aside both external and internal pressures and suggestions for a Cabinet reshuffle, everything seems to indicate that the focus will be increasingly on the party leaders.

There is one snag, though, namely that despite the charm offensive that Prime Minister Gonzi has launched both in his party media as well as in other newspapers that seem to have struck a tactical if not a strategic alliance with the Nationalist Party, political parties stand to be judged by results.

So far, Dr Gonzi's electoral performance as party leader has been dismal. He has lost two local elections and also the Euro Parliament elections in June 2004. Disgruntlement within his party has even led to a leading Net TV anchorman to publicly complain of the PM's lacklustre performance at home while adding that the Nationalists' "great white hope" has lost the shine that held for the best part of his first year in office.

Nationalist backbenchers are becoming increasingly restless since many of them are realising that the prospect of them becoming Cabinet ministers or parliamentary secretaries between now and election time is receding.

With the local election campaign already under way, one can also detect the 'first lady' profile that the pro-Nationalist media has been adopting vis-à-vis Mrs Gonzi, by giving her a role and a focus that the wives of earlier Prime Ministers did not enjoy. I mean well, and do not want to be disrespectful towards a very charming lady with a warm personality, but this seems to be an all-time first even within the Nationalist Party camp. Again, this is something which echoes the American way of doing politics.

No doubt party gurus will be closely following developments in two countries closer to home. Italy, where parliamentary elections on April 9 are likely to lead to a change in government despite an inherent tendency towards fragmentation among the Left, and the UK, where by the time the next general election is due, all three major parties will have new leaders.

The Cameron factor has had a devastating effect on British politics both vis-à-vis the Labour Party, which seems to have grown restless and uneasy after his election, and the Liberal Party which has dumped its leader, Charles Kennedy, in spite of the party's good showing at the last UK general election.

There is no doubt that the more likely it becomes that general elections in Malta are fought on US Presidential lines, the tendency to demonise party leaders is bound to increase. This has already been most evident in the PN media's approach towards Alfred Sant, although they now seem to be extending their critical arm towards other members of the leadership.

But many people I meet during home visits seem to feel and argue that this scaremongering has become stale, particularly since Labour has been projecting itself more and more as a team that will bring together competence, experience, new blood and a naked ambition to serve the country in the best interests of the working and middle-classes.

If Labour continues to play its cards well and increase its outreach further, it stands a good chance of winning the vote of the self-employed and the small businessmen as they find themselves at the wrong end of the oppressive and dampening measures that this government has introduced in recent months. Now that the CHOGM effect has already worn off, and both hoteliers and business people have realised that its economic benefits were virtually negligible, people are likely to turn their attention to what the parties have to say and offer.

While the PN is busy trying to create the impression that Labour offers no alternative and has bankrupt policies, the MLP's policy updates and consultative process shows that it is not only a 'doer' party but also a good 'listener' that is ready and willing to take on board positive suggestions wherever they may come from.

No wonder the Net TV anchorman I mentioned earlier on stated: "The next time round the PN may not be able to frighten people with visions of Sant. People may be more frightened of being treated as idiots by the PN again..."

It is true that if Government lasts the course, elections could still be some two and a half years away but the Nationalists' arrogance and over-confidence is bound to be counter-productive both in terms of electoral results as well as voter satisfaction.

Although Alternattiva Demokratika have some good elements, particularly their economic affairs spokesman, I do not feel that we will be bracing the climate of three-party politics during the general election, although this could be the case in the next local elections due in March.

Although, like David Cameron, Lawrence Gonzi will be facing the electorate as party leader for the first time, his spark has fizzled out much earlier than expected, in spite of the all-time high he has recently spoken of, while in Cameron's case he has achieved a momentum that has surprised even some of his own supporters. The Nationalists will do everything possible to project him as well prepared, forward thinking and deadly serious but the baggage of his colleagues will ultimately make him stumble.

Between now and election time each pronouncement and interview by the party leaders will be analysed and clinically dissected by the party gurus as well as by pseudo-independent commentators whose writings grace the columns of many a newspaper.

But over the same period Dr Gonzi - 'the family man' - will have to translate his middle of the road rhetoric into policies which are bound to hurt even if the tax burden might be eased when the next Budget falls due.

Labour had been criticised for relying on Phil Noble's PR consultancy. But this time I feel that even if neither of the two parties will have any US inputs in terms of communications strategy consultancy we are inevitably heading towards a US Presidential style of election campaign.

leo.brincat@gov.mt

Leo Brincat is the main Opposition spokesman on Foreign Affairs and IT.