Mixed expectations for China's 2008 gold tally

Chinese sports officials may be being overly modest when they say their country is unlikely to repeat its haul of 32 gold medals when it hosts the 2008 Olympics.

State media and national coaches have made far bolder predictions and even International Olympic Committee (IOC) president Jacques Rogge has said he would not be surprised to see China top the medal standings in Beijing.

Winning as many golds as in 2004 would be as difficult as "climbing the sky", Feng Jianzhong, deputy president of the General Administration of Sport, was quoted as saying by Xinhua news agency on Wednesday.

China finished second in the medal table at Athens with just three fewer golds than the US, though its total tally of 63 was far behind the Americans' 103.

"It is totally impossible for China to win 44 gold medals in 2008," Cui Dalin, assistant to the administration's director, said.

The officials' restrained expectations were based on China's 28 titles at world championships this year in traditionally strong sports, such as weightlifting, shooting, diving, table tennis, badminton, gymnastics and women's judo, Xinhua said.

Cui pointed specifically to weaknesses in track and field, swimming and other aquatic events.

"If we cannot achieve good results from these events, where will those 44 gold medals come from? It is totally impossible," he was quoted as saying.

China's sports machine has been making concerted efforts to improve in those events as well as others in which the country has never really contended.

Xinhua speculated that China had a chance of 30 to 40 golds, adding that after bringing in top foreign coaches, three Chinese golds in rowing, canoeing and sailing was realistic.

Modern pentathlon, Greco-Roman wrestling and boxing are also among events in which Chinese men could contend for medals, while China's women are determined to win their first golds in field hockey, triathlon and softball.

The country has also vowed to bolster weak spots like athletics by sending more athletes to train abroad.

It already has one track favourite in Liu Xiang, winner of the 110m hurdles at Athens, and Huang Xiaoxiao, who came fifth in the women's 400m hurdles at this year's world championships in Helsinki.

Long-term strategy

The Chinese swimming team has few established names besides Olympic champion Luo Xuejuan, although it has been suggested that this is part of a long-term strategy.

After Luo and her team-mates failed to win a single title at the world championships in Montreal, US coaches voiced suspicions that China was hiding its best swimmers and planning to unveil them just before the 2008 Olympics.

Only once the torch has been lit at the Beijing Games will the world know if China has been genuinely or falsely modest about its golden aims.