Tough draw leaves Italy with no choice in Germany

Italy's road to next year's World Cup finals in Germany is much more complicated than many might believe.

Italy, notorious slow-starters in international competitions, have only one way to go at the 2006 World Cup. They have to peak at the very early stages and win Group E as qualification via a second-placing will leave them with the prospect of crossing swords with defending champions Brazil in the second round.

But, topping the group will be all but easy for the Azzurri. Before this month's draw, the concern of many was to avoid Marco van Basten's Holland. Italy were lucky enough to avoid the Dutch, who they beat 3-1 in a friendly a few weeks ago.

But, in return, Italy were pitted in possibly the second most difficult group (after the one comprising Argentina, Holland, Ivory Coast and Serbia) when they were drawn to play against Ghana, USA and the Czech Republic.

Last November, Italy struggled against African opponents in the shape of Ivory Coast. Marcello Lippi's men not only failed to win but came within a whisker of suffering a rare defeat against opponents whose excellent physical state and technical finesse made life difficult for the three-times world champions. It had to be a late Aimo Diana goal that helped Italy avoid an embarrassing defeat.

In the past decade, African football has made giant strides forward.

Gone are the days when they conceded heavy defeats and suffer early exits in World Cup tournaments.

In the last four editions, there has always been an African team, like Cameroon, Nigeria or Senegal, who confounded the pundits and made progress to the latter stages of the competition. In 2006 it will not be a different story even though Cameroon, Nigeria and Senegal all failed to make it to Germany.

Ghana have been described by critics as the most emerging team on the continent. Within their ranks they have several players who ply their trade in Europe. Next month's African Nations Cup will be a perfect opportunity to witness their strength ahead of next June's World Cup.

The United States, too, have progressed by leaps and bounds particularly in the past five years or so.

They did very well in the 2002 World Cup and were eliminated by eventual runners-up Germany in an unfashionable way. They will prove to be stern opponents for Italy as well.

On paper, the toughest opponents seem to be the Czech Republic. It is true that they needed a two-legged play-off against Norway to go through, but with 2003 Golden Ball winner Pavel Nedved, of Juventus, in their squad, they will surely be a force to reckon with.

Since Italy's match against the Czechs is the last game of the group, it might be decisive not only for qualification but also to determine who will finish first in Group E and thus avoid Brazil in the second round. Italy have the qualities to finish first but they cannot run the risk of a false start.

Determined Lippi

Lippi looks pretty determined to steer Italy to the latter stages of the competition after successive premature eliminations in the 2002 World Cup and Euro 2004.

Italy's quest for their first title since 1982 will not be plain sailing but, at the same time, they do have the necessary prerequisites to seek glory in Germany.

Apart from clear favourites Brazil, the rest of the teams are by and large on the same level playing field.

In Germany, five-times champions Brazil may become only the second non-European team ever to triumph in our continent.

They can emulate their 1958 World Cup success in Sweden albeit this time they have to beat stiff opposition in hosts Germany, England, Italy, France, Argentina and the Netherlands.

Italy's chances in the World Cup strongly rest on the physical form of key players, particularly Alessandro Nesta and Fabio Cannavaro in defence, Francesco Totti in the middle and the scoring verve of Luca Toni.

The next World Cup winners will not necessary be the best team in the world. Greece were surely not the most fearsome side when they defied the odds and triumphed against hosts Portugal in Euro 2004. The same can be said of Denmark in Euro 1992.

On the contrary, the winners of next year's World Cup will be the team that peaks in time for the one-month long tournament.

In Italy's case, this largely depends on two factors.

First, the outcome of the scudetto. If the 2005/06 title race finishes early, then Lippi would have more time to work with his players.

Second, the progress of Italian teams in Europe will also have a bearing on the national team's fortunes in Germany.

If either Juventus, Milan or Inter were to make it to the European Cup final (on May 17 in Paris), some national team players would have already played around 45 to 48 matches before the World Cup gets underway on June 9. When he comes to select the squad, Lippi will have to make sure he chooses the most in-form players and not the most acclaimed names.

Finding replacements, mostly in defence, is another issue which Lippi badly needs to tackle in the next five months.

Who would replace Nesta or Cannavaro if they were to be ruled out by injury or suspension? In some departments, Lippi has various options but in others his choice is restricted.

But mainly, Lippi's mission next year will be to get all his players focused and to follow the same objective.

Italy will have to avoid distractions, handle the pressure and hit top form immediately to harbour aspirations of glory in Germany.