Malta blocked in the ESDP

Although Malta fully subscribes to the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP), it is being blocked from participating fully in those initiatives where NATO assets are employed in the 'Berlin Plus' arrangement. This also applies to Cyprus.

The two Mediterranean island states can overcome this obstacle only if they join NATO or NATO's Partnership for Peace (PfP). Both countries are reluctant to do this.

However, Cyprus may eventually waver if this issue drags on longer since internal pressure is building to break the stalemate by applying to join NATO or the PfP. In the event of such an application, it might take NATO five years to decide on the Cypriot application.

This problem may also negatively impair Malta in efforts to fight illegal immigration. NATO's attitude on this issue is seen to be unreasonable by both Malta and Cyprus, which have stuck together so far.

A Cypriot application to join NATO or the PfP will almost certainly be blocked by Turkey, which has already made it clear that it will do so if Cyprus submits an application. However, if Cyprus applies, then Turkey may come under intense American pressure to relent.

The UK is helping neither of its former colonies because of the implications for NATO in the overall European security structure.

Another obstacle Cyprus may have to overcome is the opposition of the Cypriot Communist Party AKEL, which is the strongest political formation on the island. AKEL has in the past supported EU membership but opposed the European Constitution.

If the issue has to be decided in a referendum, the outcome is uncertain - however not if it is disguised in yet another move towards resolving the Cyprus problem.