Prodi defiant despite electoral manoeuvres

Italy's opposition leader Romano Prodi said yesterday he was certain his centre-left bloc would win the next general election despite a last-minute move by the government to re-write the electoral laws.

Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has wrongfooted the opposition with his drive to reintroduce proportional representation to Italy, rushing a Bill through the lower house of Parliament on Thursday.

Centre-left politicians say the reform, which must be approved by the upper house to become law, was aimed at reviving Mr Berlusconi's electoral fortunes and could usher in a new era of revolving-door governments to Italy.

The row has overshadowed a centre-left "primary" election tomorrow, which is expected to crown Prof. Prodi as the opposition's candidate for Prime Minister almost a year after his return to politics following a stint as European Commission President.

"We will move forward and try and block (the Bill) in the Senate. We will fight to the end," Prof. Prodi said yesterday during a visit to the southern city of Naples to promote the primaries.

"And then we will win the election regardless, because the country can't take this government anymore. It has not only governed badly, but is changing the rules of democracy on the eve of an election," Prof. Prodi told supporters.

Mr Berlusconi's reform will almost certainly replace the existing hybrid voting system at the next election, which is due by May 2006. The Bill proposes a complex PR system that will guarantee the winning coalition at least 54 per cent of seats in both houses of Parliament, regardless of their vote tally.

Recent opinion polls forecast that Prof. Prodi's alliance would secure a handsome victory under the old system, but would do less well with the reform, thanks partly to the fact that Mr Berlusconi's allies have always performed better in PR votes.

Some pollsters have even predicted that Mr Berlusconi could snatch a shock victory as the sluggish economy finally picks up.

But analysts say the reform might also heighten political instability, making larger parties more beholden to smaller ones as they try to secure the winner's parliamentary majority. Subsequent coalitions might prove impossible to govern.

"You might end up getting very perverse results. It won't provide either stability or governability and is the worst of all possible worlds," economist Tito Boeri said.

The reform also poses a separate headache for Prof. Prodi, who is not a member of any political party. This was allowed under the previous system and guaranteed him independence in dealing with his varied allies, but is not allowed by the new text.

If the Senate approves the Bill, he might have to sign up to a party, tying him to one of the many centre-left factions, or create his own party, which would challenge his allies.