New King Abdullah will not change Saudi direction

Monarch in all but name for 10 years already, Saudi Arabia's new reformist King Abdullah can wield full authority after succeeding his half-brother King Fahd but will not wrench the conservative kingdom onto a different path.

"I cannot imagine there will be any particular change in that (foreign) policy undertaken by the late King Fahd," the Saudi ambassador to London, Prince Turki al-Faisal, said. Asked whether the same applied to oil policy, he said: "Absolutely."

As king-designate, Prince Abdullah has run Saudi Arabia's day-to-day affairs since King Fahd suffered a stroke in 1995 and has been the central decision-maker on issues ranging from oil and the Middle East to the country's two-year battle against al Qaeda militants.

He has been a driving force behind economic reform in the world's biggest oil exporter and initiated modest political change when Saudis voted in men-only elections this year for local councils. Four months later these have yet to be set up.

Prince Abdullah was named king yesterday as soon as King Fahd's death was announced.

"There will be no real change in relations with the United States and no change over oil policy or in the security crackdown," predicted Mai Yamani, a Saudi analyst at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London.

Even leading an absolute monarchy, King Abdullah will still have to take into account views of other senior royals, including his half-brother Prince Sultan, the new crown prince, Mr Yamani added.

Saudi Arabia has been tackling a wave of bombings by Saudi-born Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network since May 2003 and has also been trying to mend ties with Washington hurt by the September 11 attacks, carried out mainly by Saudi hijackers.

In recent years the sickly King Fahd made brief public appearances to meet visiting dignitaries or to chair cabinet sessions. Officials who met him said conversation was sometimes limited to a simple exchange of greetings.

While he was in hospital, often sedated or unconscious according to medical staff, state media continued to report decrees, telegrams and decisions issued in his name.

"What changed today is that Abdullah is totally in charge. He will have the support of everyone in the royal family to continue with his reform plan," said one Saudi official.

"He has had experience of being in charge. But being a king is different." Another Saudi source familiar with government policy said "stability and continuity" will mark King Abdullah's reign, echoing a common refrain since King Fahd was taken to hospital on May 27.

Officials had been anxious to signal clearly to the world that King Fahd's illness and the succession would not paralyse business in one of Washington's key Middle East allies.

Last month the royal family accepted the resignation of long-time ambassador to Washington Prince Bandar bin Sultan and also appointed a new deputy minister at the foreign ministry.

Oil prices edged higher after King Fahd's death, with US crude rising to $61.23 before retreating to $61.03, a 46-cent rise.

Prince Turki, nominated the next ambassador to Washington, said the kingdom would stand by its policy of keeping global markets well supplied and stabilising prices.

Oil ministers from fellow Opec producers also predicted no change in Saudi Arabia's traditional oil policy.

"Because Saudi Arabia's policy was conducted by Crown Prince Abdullah, naturally there should be no change in the country's policy," Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said.

Riyadh is now pumping about 9.5 million barrels per day of crude. It has vowed to keep spare production capacity of 1.5 million to two million bpd to meet any supply shortfalls and has embarked on a programme of capacity expansion.

Economists say King Abdullah may also speed up economic reform in the kingdom, which is trying to ease dependence on crude oil revenues and create employment for hundreds of thousands of Saudis who enter the job market every year.