Temperature rise could spell ruin for Med tourism

Summer tourism in the Mediterranean could be devastated by regional climate change impacts, according to the World Wildlife Fund.

A report issued last week, "Climate Change Impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2°C global temperature rise" warned that such an increase (over pre-industrial levels), considered possible even by mid-century under present trends, implied a similar average rise in the region, but up to 5°C increases in South Mediterranean inland areas.

The EU is committed to promoting global policies to limit the temperature increase to a peak of 2°C, followed by a subsequent decline.

While Mediterranean islands like Malta and coastal areas would be spared the most extreme impacts, the region would see an average one month increase in both 'summer days' and 'tropical nights' with rocketing cooling demands and resultant stresses on energy supplies. Annual rainfall could fall by 20% in the South Mediterranean and by 30% in the north, generating extended droughts.

A significantly higher number of heatwave days (+35°C) water shortages and the spread of diseases not prevalent in the region now (such as malaria) would result in a major slump drop in family holidays in the Mediterranean by North Europeans. This decline would not be compensated by possible increases in spring and autumn tourism, the report says.

Major impacts from longer, hotter and drier summers on agriculture would include huge decreases in output of traditional non-irrigated summer crops, (such as beans and lentils), escalating demand for irrigation water (which might not be available), and vastly increased risks of forest fires.

Biodiversity loss could exceed 50% of plant species in the northern Mediterranean region, and 80% in north-central Spain and in mountainous areas, especially in France.

So far neither the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership nor the UN Environment Programme's Mediterranean Action Plan (MAP) have focused on regional climate change issues. However, provision for initiating regional dialogue and action is made under Mediterranean Strategy for Sustainable Development, adopted last month by the MAP's Mediterranean Commission for Sustainable Development. The strategy will be submitted for adoption by the 14th Conference of the Contracting Parties to the Barcelona Convention in November.

The G8 summit in Scotland ending on Friday agreed to a Climate Change Plan of Action and open dialogue process aimed at curbing greenhouse gas emissions and helping vulnerable nations adapt to impacts.