Another French revolution

The No winners in the French referendum on the treaty for a Constitution for Europe celebrated at the Bastille. The hated Bastille is no longer there. The French of the 18th century took care to remove it. On the spot where it stood, the French still feel that it is a symbol of liberation. In this case it was the Bastille versus Brussels, and the Bastille won hands down. What is significant in the celebrations is that the young people of Paris thronged the Place de la Bastille.

The implications of the vote are too early to assess. What should be clear to one and all is that the draft treaty on the Constitution is dead. French President Jacques Chirac has already declared that he will take the No decision to the European table, as this was a binding and not a consultative referendum. The French cannot now ratify the treaty by taking a parliamentary vote, where the treaty would certainly have been approved.

The treaty can only come into force if it is ratified by all 25 members. It is written down in that document. In most multinational treaties, there is a clause which states that they come into force when a minimum number of ratifications have been received. In this case the minimum was unanimity of all member countries. This was a "veto vote". EU Commission President José Manuel Barroso, trying to project courage, was wrong when he said that the French vote cannot halt the process. It has ditched this treaty.

Article 447 states that the instruments of ratification shall be deposited with the Italian government. When all instruments of ratification have been received, the treaty will come into force on November 1, 2006. If that is not the case, then it will come into force on the first day of the second month from the last ratification and deposit. So the date of November 1, 2006 is a dead letter. Is Chirac going to propose another referendum within the next two years, when he has important national elections coming up? Which French political party is going to propose a second run within the short term, when there is a difference of over 10 percentage points?

The impasse

There can be no tinkering with the treaty at the present moment to satisfy the qualms of the French. What would happen to the ratifications which has already been made in other countries? The process has to start all over again. Is there any guarantee that the ratification with an amended version would go through in France?

What about the other ratifications in the pipeline? Are parliaments going to ratify, and referenda indicate the opposite?

The Irish are already decided that they will go forward with their plans to ratify the treaty. The British government has seen this vote as a possible fire exit. It may consider that it is useless to hold the promised referendum, a course that will take the wind out of the sails of the Eurosceptics and the Conservatives in an attempt to deal another blow to EU integration.

The Italian Lega Nord is already thinking about an abrogative referemdum on the ratification which has been approved by the Italian Parliament. Extreme right-winger Jörg Haider is rejoicing in Austria, which has already approved the Constitutional Treaty. What about Spain, which has held a consultative referendum and a parliamentary vote?

The Dutch result

The Netherlands have resoundingly voted No. In this case, it does not seem that the campaign was not focused on the charter itself, and that the problems were more internal than European. If one examines the opinions of the No campaign, they were questioning the very fundamentals of the Union, and putting into question what already exists in the previous treaties. If this Charter consolidates earlier treaties, with amendments to cater for a larger Union, the Dutch No campaign brought into play what had already been settled law and practice.

The process of ratification has to continue from a formal aspect in the remaining countries. Where Parliaments are called to do the job, every single member knows that his vote is not going to produce any substantial result, whether it is a yes vote or a no vote. The Yes does not bind finally, and the No is redundant. Where referenda are going to be held, turnout and final results may simply increase the chaos. Coming to think of it, even the Spanish referendum, although favourable, did not generate any substantial turnout.

In my view, another French revolution has started. It has been triggered by the distance between the political rulers and the citizens. The target this time seems to be the superstructures of power and the aristocracy in Brussels. Time will tell, and the solutions do not seem to be easy.