French 'No' casts Europe into uncertainty

France's massive "No" to the European Union Constitution casts Europe into the most severe political crisis for more than a decade, opening a period of uncertainty, introspection and potential paralysis.

For the first time since 1954, when the French Parliament rejected a treaty to establish a European Defence Community, a founder country that has been in the vanguard of every step in European integration, has voted against the next stage.

And it wasn't even close - the "No" vote won by a margin of more than 10 per cent.

Since all 25 member states need to ratify the Constitution, designed to streamline EU leadership and make decision-making more efficient following the bloc's enlargement, the prospects for its entry into force look dim.

"I think this means the treaty is dead, both legally and politically," said Daniel Keohane, an Irish analyst at the London-based Centre for European Reform.

"It means this project is bust," agreed Paul Magnette, director of the European Studies Institute at Brussels ULB University. "Everyone realises there can't be a second referendum, nor a parliamentary approval."

The crushing margin of defeat appeared to dash hopes in Brussels that the French might be persuaded to vote again later, especially since the turnout was so high.

Furthermore Dutch voters now seem even more likely to reject the charter tomorrow and British Prime Minister Tony Blair looks unlikely to hold a referendum next year which would have been hard enough to win if the rest of Europe had voted "Yes".

"What other country will risk a referendum on a treaty that two founder members have already rejected? How would they get the 'Yes' vote out," Mr Keohane said.

Yet the EU's political leaders appeared to be in denial. European Commission President José Manuel Barroso and the president of the European Council, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, are uurging member states to continue with ratification.

"The ratification procedure must be pursued in other countries," Mr Juncker told a news conference.

Leaders of the two main political groups in the European Parliament also united to declare that the show must go on.

Their hope is that if more than 20 states approve the treaty, they will recreate the political momentum to bring the charter into force, although it is not clear how.

When Germany's upper house ratified the treaty last Friday, the EU executive rushed to proclaim that nine countries representing almost half the bloc's 454 million citizens had now approved the text, strengthening the case for carrying on.

But only one, Spain, has approved it in a referendum. "I would find it extraordinary to tell other nations that they could stay home because the French had decided for them," Mr Juncker told the Belgian daily Le Soir last week.

The leader of the Party of European Socialists, former Danish Prime Minister Poul Nyrup Rasmussen, said in a statement: "This is not the last word on the European Constitution... The French 'No' should not be the end to the ratification process.

"Every citizen of the European Union has the right to vote on this constitution, either directly or through their national parliaments," he said.

French President Jacques Chirac made clear in his television address acknowledging defeat that other countries would continue with their ratification processes.

Most may agree to do so, if only as a temporary expedient, but those at greatest risk of losing a referendum - Britain, the Czech Republic and Poland - may argue for a "pause for thought" when EU leaders next meet on June 16-17 in Brussels.

"I don't see how Tony Blair can be forced to take such an enormous risk for a still-born treaty," Mr Magnette said.

The French "No" deals a body blow to the self-confidence of the EU after a string of successes from the introduction of the euro single currency to last year's "big bang" enlargement to take in 10 mainly ex-communist east European states.