Europe and the British elections

Many are those who feel that something was missing from the British electoral campaign. For a nation that for many years harboured the largest Eurosceptical electorate, one would have expected the European Union to have figured somewhere in the campaign. Hardly a word was spoken about the EU, the European Constitution or the euro, certainly not by the leaders of the main political parties.

The reason for this is that all matters concerning the EU were neutralised way before the election was announced. The Prime Minister and leader of the Labour Party, Tony Blair, much earlier than expected had announced that the UK will hold a referendum on the European Constitution in 2006, during the next legislature.

Labour remained committed to support joining the euro once all the Maastricht convergences were in place. All in all, it is still the view of the Labour government that the UK should be at the heart of a reformed Europe. It is therefore significant that in a few months' time Britain will take the presidency of the EU setting forth its agenda for the next steps to be taken to effect the desired reforms.

The Conservative Party remains divided about Europe and therefore welcomed the absence of the EU from the electoral fray. A heavyweight such as Ken Clarke, who, according to some reports, still entertains gaining the leadership of the party, would not have been silenced had Europe become a hot issue. So the Conservative leader Michael Howard simply accepted that the battle about the European Constitution was for the future, possibly under him as a victorious leader or a defeated one.

The Conservative leader does not object to other countries deepening their integration but favours the UK opting out of the Social Charter once more, gaining back power over its fishing rights and forgetting the adoption of the euro once and for all. We now know that another Conservative leader will have to grapple with all these European problems.

The Liberal Democrats, who have been the most European of all political parties in the UK, back the European Constitution, although they want to see a more effective and more accountable Europe and will work towards promoting the right conditions to join the euro.

There were however two political parties unashamedly against Britain staying in the European Union. One is the United Kingdom Independence Party and the other one is Veritas. The second one was led by Robert Kilroy-Silk, a former Labour MP who was elected to the European Parliament last summer on a UKIP ticket but has since resigned from the party. His showing at the general election was pretty poor. He came fourth in the Derbyshire constituency of Erewash with just under 3,000 votes, 5.85 per cent of the total vote. Veritas had no successes anywhere in the UK where it contested.

The UKIP launched its biggest ever electoral campaign. The party fielded close to 500 candidates. Even so it failed to make the desired breakthrough. It has lost deposits in 451 constituencies amounting to £225,000. The party leader himself, former Tory MP Roger Knapman, only polled 3,914 votes, 7.74 per cent of the vote in the Devon constituency of Totnes. The other well-known UKIP candidate, the MEP Nigel Farage, who the party predicted could garner 20 per cent of the vote in the Kent constituency of Thanet, gathered 2,079 votes, a mere 5.04 per cent of the total vote.

In the last European elections, the UKIP managed to get 16.1 per cent of the national vote, electing 12 MEPs. But, of course, the European elections are held under the proportional representation system (with a low turnout) while at a general election, the first past the post system is in place and there is a higher turnout. The UKIP's share of the vote in the 2005 general election was 2.3 per cent, a mere 0.8 per cent improvement when compared to the last election's share of the vote. Still a very poor showing.

David Butler, the doyen of British psephologists made this comment: "The collapse of the UKIP and Veritas were significant". Repeatedly, the British electorate has shunned the idea of a government committed to taking the UK out of the EU. The UKIP has had good exposure with the same electorate on the media since last June's success, even though some of it was negative publicity due to the in-fighting within the party, which led to Mr Kilroy-Silk's defection. Irrespective of a presence in 500 constituencies and a constant anti-EU campaign in some of the very influential daily and Sunday papers, the UKIP has been told by the British people it has no future. Its success at the European elections was simply a whimsical stance by electors who have learnt to distinguish between elections that matter to them and elections that have very little effect on the country and themselves.

All this does not mean that come the referendum on the European Constitution, Mr Blair's yes vote is guaranteed. It is too early to say how the new Conservative party leadership will tackle this burning issue. The likely scenario would be a repetition of what Harold Wilson did back in 1975 prior to the referendum held then to see whether the British people wanted to stay in the EU.

Mr Blair will seek a recommendation from the House of Commons for the acceptance of the Constitution by the British people. Even if some Labour MPs vote against or abstain, the Liberals are bound to vote for this recommendation.

Mr Blair will probably revive fairly soon the plan for a national coalition for the European Constitution. This is where some unholy alliances are bound to emerge. Both Lord Heseltine and Mr Clark are committed to support such a coalition.

On the other hand, the Conservative Party, if it retains its present frame of mind, will find strange bedfellows from the UKIP and elsewhere. The shadow of the forthcoming referendum, if and when it happens, is already playing an important part in Mr Blair's own future plans. That is a fact; the rest is still open to pure speculation.