Iraq haunts Blair on election trail

Reg Keys is on an emotional one-man mission to stop Tony Blair winning the election.

The 52-year-old retired medic's son Tom was killed by a mob in Iraq in 2003, so Mr Keys has decided to stand against Mr Blair as an independent candidate to make sure the Prime Minister does not forget it.

"I want to hold Tony Blair to account for his deceit over the war in Iraq," Mr Keys said as he began campaigning.

"My son Tom believed what he was told, but Blair lied to him, and to all those other soldiers who came home in coffins after fighting in a war that was illegal and immoral."

Mr Keys has a virtually impossible task to topple Mr Blair - at the 2001 election, the Labour Party leader won a 17,713 majority in his northeast constituency of Sedgefield.

But his mere presence is an awkward reminder to Mr Blair of the inescapable Iraq factor haunting him ahead of the May 5 poll.

Mr Blair's decision to support the US-led invasion of Iraq has become the defining theme of his eight-year rule.

Domestic opposition was already high when Britain went to war.

But the lack of post-war peace for Iraq plus, more importantly, accusations London hyped intelligence about Saddam Hussein's arms programmes to justify the war, intensified criticism and has sent Mr Blair's trust ratings tumbling.

"It is the sense of betrayal that is the root of the anger... Until the government comes to grips with that, they will never stem the molten lava of anger that flows from the volcano of Iraq," said Independent newspaper columnist Adrian Hamilton.

Iraq has been the backdrop of all the iconic lows for Mr Blair this term - a humiliating slow handclap by a female audience at a TV appearance; ministerial resignations and the suicide of a UK weapons inspector embroiled in the intelligence row.

Now on the campaign trail, Blair still cannot escape Iraq.

From Mr Keys on his doorstep in Sedgefield, to endless questions at public appearances, Iraq rears its head at every turn despite Mr Mr Blair's best efforts to swing attention to domestic issues like the economy and public services. Tellingly, few Labour MPs are using Mr Blair's image on their propaganda.

"Without Iraq, Labour would be higher in polls and on for an easy win," said pollster Peter Kellner. "Because of it, the race is tighter and they may have a greatly reduced majority."

Polls show a tighter-than-expected battle, with Labour just a few percentage points ahead in most. But the Conservatives would still need a large swing to wrest power from Mr Blair as the electoral map greatly favours Labour's chances.

So if people are so upset over Iraq, why won't Mr Blair lose?

Iraq's fall down the media headlines, combined with the opposition parties' failure to capitalise properly, have been a godsend to Mr Blair at a crucial time.

"(Conservative leader) Michael Howard has spectacularly failed to land punches on the whole controversy over war in Iraq," said biographer Anthony Seldon.

Hamstrung by having backed the war in the first place, the Conservatives nevertheless attacked Mr Blair over the intelligence controversy, but were hit back with accusations of opportunism.

Mr Blair loyalists insist the Iraq factor is being exaggerated by the "Westminster Village" of London-based journalists and politicians. They point to a recent poll showing only one in 10 voters considered it the most important factor. And while acknowledging the damage it has done him, aides say it at least shows Mr Blair's courage as a leader.

Mr Blair himself does not try to ignore the issue.

"With Iraq I had to decide, would the world be better without Saddam or with him? In the end, I think it's better he is out but I have never disrespected someone with a different point of view," he told a recent interviewer.

Many traditional Labour voters were mulling a protest switch to anti-war party the Liberal Democrats. But as the Conservatives creep up the polls, and with Mr Blair widely expected to be replaced by Chancellor Gordon Brown at some point during a third term if Labour wins, some traditional Labour voters seem to be having second thoughts.