Demographic challenges for social cohesion

Some 250 demographers, politicians, government officials and social scientists met in Strasbourg on April 7-8 to take part in an international conference organised by the European Population Committee of the Council of Europe in collaboration with the Parliamentary Assembly, the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities and the European Committee for Social Cohesion on demographic challenges for social cohesion.

This was the ninth conference organised by this committee that is entrusted with the implementation of the programme of activities in the population field as determined by the Council of Ministers of the Council of Europe.

The three main sessions of the conference addressed the policy implications of changing family formation, population aging and challenges to social policies and the impacts of migration on society and government policies. The focus of the debate was on how European society is meeting these challenges.

The general demographic profile of Europe is characterised by declining marriage rates, increase in the age of first marriage and a fall in fertility rates. Moreover, the distinction between marriage and cohabitation is becoming more blurred. Available statistics suggest that cohabitation may become a more permanent form of relationship than marriage now that certain legal limitations such as inheritance rights are being eased in several countries.

During the second half of the last century, the number of persons aged 65 and over in the total population has risen in all major European regions, both numerically and as a proportion of the population.

In absolute numbers the elderly more than doubled in the last 50 years, from 46 million to 112 million, while their relative share in the total population increased from eight per cent in 1950 to 14 per cent in 2000. As a region, Europe has, in fact, the oldest population in the world.

There are a number of demographic determinants of this phenomenon. The most important is the observed trend in many countries of below-replacement fertility which is assumed to prevail in several countries in the future. Moreover, the increasing life expectancy in all European countries will mean an increase in absolute and relative number of the elderly. This tendency will also boost the number of the "oldest" old (80 years or over) in the population.

The aging factor is also posing challenges to pension systems, health expenditure and living arrangements of the elderly. The latter challenge is compounded by the changing types of family formations. With increasing childlessness, divorce and separations or not marrying at all, more elderly persons will have to live alone.

The third topic of the conference addressed the issue of migration on European society. For the last two decades, Europe has become a continent of immigration.

Today, immigration has become the most important component of population growth in 26 of the 45 European states for which data exist and will continue in this trend for the foreseeable future. Europe is gaining around a million people each year through migration, the net result between inflows and outflows of migrants.

In several countries, economic migration has been followed by family reunification while asylum migration is on the increase with more and more inflows from developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America. At the same time, almost half of today's immigrants are women.

Recent statistics refer to about 24.6 million recorded foreign nationals in European countries and these comprise 4.5 per cent of the total population. The total number of foreign nationals has risen by a fifth since 1995 mainly because of amnesties in southern European states.

It is estimated that there are about 83 million people who were born in countries other than the ones in which they reside. Moreover, governments have to deal with some 360,000 asylum applications per year. These figures do not include an unknown number of irregular migrants.

As a result of this phenomenon, several European countries redefined their migration and asylum policies. Most legal amendments were motivated by the respect for human rights. Still, the increased flows of irregular migrants are posing problems to several receiving countries. One problem that calls for a joint and concerted effort of all countries concerns the integration of immigrants in the population or "the process of becoming an accepted part of society".

This simple definition has at least three distinct dimensions which make the integration process more difficult to be accepted. It has a legal and political connotation that depends on the readiness of the receiving countries to accept immigrants as part of their legal society. It has also a socio-economic dimension and refers to extending to immigrants the same socio-economic rights particularly in the fields of education, labour market, housing and social security, enjoyed by ordinary citizens.

One cannot say that Europe has succeeded in adopting a uniform stance on integration notwithstanding that several attempts to establish a common integration policy have been made. The Amsterdam Treaty of 1997, which came into force in 1999, laid the legal foundation for the harmonisation of asylum and communitarian immigration policies in the EU.

This was followed by the Tempere Summit in 1999 that developed a political programme and a work plan to build gradually a common immigration policy. An important development was achieved at the Thessaloniki summit in June 2003 and more recently during the EU ministers Conference in Groningen.

In any debate on the direction of migration flows, one has to bear in mind that since the data sources are not harmonised, comparative analysis of such flows has to be read with caution. The relative size of flows into countries has, therefore, to be regarded only as indicative.

The lack of good quality migration data has been investigated for a number of years but very little progress has been achieved so far. Migration statistics will, however, be the subject of a directive by the EU Commission in the near future.

At present Europe stands on a demographic threshold. Notwithstanding cross-country differences in the type and intensity of demographic changes, all European countries are facing essentially the same challenges stemming from changes in family formation, an increasing aging of the populations and migration pressures.

These developments present challenges for social cohesion within populations. As understood by the Council of Europe, social cohesion refers to "the capacity of a society to ensure the welfare of all its members, minimising disparities and avoiding polarisation.

"A cohesive society is a mutually supportive community of free individuals pursuing these common goals by democratic means."

Mr Camilleri is the vice-president of the European Population Committee of the Council of Europe