No clear favourite

Roman Catholic cardinals moved into sequestered lodgings yesterday ahead of a conclave to elect a successor to Pope John Paul II, with no clear favourite in sight to take charge of the 1.1 billion-member Church.

The 115 cardinals eligible to vote are all staying in a specially-built residence within the Vatican, and were dining together last night before entering their secretive conclave in the Sistine Chapel this afternoon.

Before being shut off from the outside world, some of the red-hatted "princes of the church" held public Masses around a rainswept Rome yesterday in which they sought to emphasise the spiritual nature of their quest.

"People think that we are going to vote like in an election. But this is something completely different. We are going to listen to the Lord and listen to the Holy Spirit," Cardinal Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga of Honduras said in a homily.

None of the cardinals would be drawn on possible contenders. "I believe the Holy Spirit already knows, but he hasn't told us yet," said Mexican cardinal Norberto Rivera Carrera.

In the run-up to the vote, much media speculation has centred on John Paul's closest aide and arch-ideologue Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, suggesting that the German prelate might head initial balloting. Cardinal Ratzinger, 78, also tops betting websites.

Cardinal Ratzinger led the funeral Mass for John Paul on April 8, but many Vatican watchers doubt whether a man whose conservative dogma has polarised the Roman Catholic world could gain the two-thirds majority needed to become Pope himself.

That could leave the field open to a compromise candidate who could bridge the numerous factions that have risen up within the largest religious organisation in the world during John Paul's high-profile 26-year pontificate.

The cardinals can decide not to vote at their opening session today to give themselves more time for reflection.

Thereafter they will hold up to four ballots a day until they elect the 264th successor to the first Pope, St Peter.

Of the eight 20th century conclaves, none took longer than five days, and two were completed on the second day. It took just eight ballots over three days to choose the relatively unknown Karol Wojtyla of Poland as Pope John Paul in 1978.

The cardinals are due to hold a public Mass this morning in St Peter's Basilica. At 4.30 (1430 GMT) they will file into the Sistine Chapel to start their deliberations.

In the build-up to the vote, some 15 cardinals have been promoted in the press as potential Popes, including Italians Dionigi Tettamanzi and Angelo Scola, Brazil's Claudio Hummes, Nigeria's Francis Arinze and the Honduran Maradiaga.

Before Karol Wojtyla's election, Italy had held the papacy for 455 years. Many Italians hope they will now reclaim it and fear that if they fail, they may have lost their privileged position for good as the Church becomes increasingly international.

Among the major issues facing the cardinals are the growing spiritual poverty of Europe, the material poverty of the third world and devolution of power within the Church.

Critics of John Paul said he focused too much power in the hands of the Vatican and smothered theological debate.

The cardinals themselves have taken an unusual vow of media silence ahead of the conclave, adding to a sense of uncertainty and intrigue within the male-dominated Church hierarchy.

"It's very hard to know what's going on in the Church, we feel that it's a different world from where we are," said Sister Emanuel, who works in Australia and is on a retreat in Rome.

The conclave will be like no other election in the world. There will be no press briefings after the ballots, no spin doctors promoting their candidates, just a simple puff of smoke from the Sistine chimney - black smoke for an inconclusive vote and white smoke when a new Pope is chosen.

Inside the Sistine Chapel, the cardinal electors can chat with each other, read and pray but cannot make speeches.

In preparation for a decision, Vatican workers have put up red curtains on the balcony of St Peter's where the new Pontiff will make his first appearance to the world.

In the hours leading to today's lock-up, leading Catholics made final public appeals to the cardinals about the sort of Pope they wanted to see step onto the balcony.

"Dear brothers, choose someone who will guarantee the freedom and openness of the Church," Swiss theologian Hans Kueng, one of the Church's most prominent liberal dissenters, said in an article in La Stampa newspaper.

Whoever wins will have a hard act to follow. John Paul not only dominated his own Church but was a leading player on the geo-political stage, helping undermine Communism in Europe.

"It is a painful moment for us, having lost Pope John Paul. I hope they will be able to choose a man as great as the one we lost," Mina Potenza, an elderly housewife from Rome, said as she visited St Peter's yesterday.