Milan's Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi may be the magnet for moderate votes if critics of conservative Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger can unite in balloting for a new pope next week, Vatican watchers said yesterday.
The first voting round in the secret conclave, due to start next Monday afternoon, looks like a symbolic stand-off between Cardinal Ratzinger and Cardinal Tettamanzi's predecessor as Milan archbishop, Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini, Italian newspapers said.
With neither seen winning the required two-thirds majority, the 115 "princes of the Church" in the conclave would then have to decide whether to look for new candidates.
"Nobody expects Ratzinger or Martini to go the distance," one Church official commented. "So there will be a deadlock. That's when the real work of the conclave will begin."
There are no clear favourites to succeed Pope John Paul, and the secrecy shrouding the cardinals' consultations before they enter the Vatican's Sistine Chapel for the conclave makes trend-spotting tricky.
But some cardinals appear to be ignoring the vow of secrecy, leaking details to a few Italian dailies. Most cardinals - even those from far-away countries - can speak Italian, so the reporting becomes part of the pre-conclave politicking.
Vatican watchers say Cardinal Ratzinger, 77, a German who was Pope John Paul's doctrinal watchdog for 23 years, has the support of 40 to 50 cardinals who want his firm line to continue.
Dean of the College of Cardinals, this formidable theologian has delighted conservative Catholics with his vigorous defence of the faith. But his condemnations of critical theologians have polarised the Church and he may not be electable.
Moderates and some conservatives oppose him as a Vatican centraliser, they say. They will first line up behind Cardinal Martini, 78, a respected reformer who has ruled out seriously running himself, but would then need a second-round candidate.
"In the cardinals' meetings, Cardinal Martini is showing great respect to his successor in Milan, Dionigi Tettamanzi - a clear signal to focus reformist votes on him," La Repubblica wrote.
"These gestures were interpreted as explicit support from one of the most authoritative members of the College of Cardinals," La Stampa observed.
Cardinal Tettamanzi, 71, is an outgoing man who embodies the "John Paul paradox" of conservative theology and social activism.
He defended anti-globalisation protesters at the 2001 Group of Eight summit in Genoa, where he was archbishop at the time, and has spoken about the need to care for African AIDS victims.
Italian press reports carried details clearly based on leaks from cardinals that could not be confirmed.
La Repubblica reported most German and US cardinals opposed Cardinal Ratzinger as a Vatican centraliser.
Corriere della Sera said Cardinal Martini would garner about as many votes as Cardinal Ratzinger in the first round, after which both would have to step aside for more consensual candidates.
The main moderates mentioned for voting after a ritual first round are Cardinal Tettamanzi, an unnamed Latin American cardinal and Lisbon Cardinal Jose da Cruz Policarpo.
If Cardinal Ratzinger pulled out, possible standard-bearers for the conservatives include Rome's Camillo Ruini, Christoph Schoenborn of Vienna or Angelo Scola from Venice, the newspapers wrote.
Cardinal Francis Arinze, born in Nigeria but based at the Vatican for nearly 20 years, is another theological conservative.