Tough issues face whoever succeeds Pope John Paul II

In his quarter-century at the head of the world's billion Roman Catholics, Pope John Paul II has led an unflagging campaign to assert Vatican orthodoxy amid cheers from traditionalists and groans from Church liberals.

The Polish pontiff has filled almost all the seats in the College of Cardinals with like-minded men, stacking the odds in favour of another staunch conservative following him.

As the third-longest papacy in history was nearing its end, the passion that marked the clashes with his critics had calmed considerably but the divisions remained. Unfinished business will have to wait for the next man to resolve.

At the Vatican, some even wonder whether John Paul's long papacy may have helped the Church ride out the storm that his re-emphasis on orthodoxy whipped up after the reformist phase launched by the 1962-1965 Second Vatican Council.

"I think the Church would have been left more divided if he had died 10 or 15 years ago," one Vatican source said. "I wonder if he has not worn them all out. There is a new generation of people who look at things in a different way."

Traditionalists, including 20-something Catholics in the West who reject the more liberal views their baby-boomer parents have, want to continue on the orthodox path. Sidelined from most Church posts, the voice of liberal reform has grown dimmer.

But even a moderate like German Cardinal Walter Kasper, head of the Vatican's office for relations with other Christian churches, sees a gap between the Church and the faithful.

"It will not be very easy for the next Pope," he told the British Catholic weekly The Tablet last year. He noted a "tension in many points between the official doctrines of the Church and what is received and lived within the Church".

Following are several main issues facing the next Pope.

North-south rift

The Church's centre of gravity shifted during the last century from Europe to the Third World, with 62 per cent of all Catholics now in Latin America, Africa and Asia.

The churches of the "global South" take a more activist stand for social justice and Third World debt relief than Northerners. But they are generally more orthodox on issues such as celibacy, liturgical rituals and the role of women in the Church.

The question now is whether a more "Southern" Church would alienate those "Northerners" hoping for more liberal policies after the long conservative papacy of John Paul II.

Dwindling ranks

Over the next 10 to 20 years, the Church's aging clergy faces a dramatic drop in its ranks as priests die or retire. The average age of a Catholic priest now is over 60.

The number of parishes without a resident priest is climbing worldwide, most quickly in developed countries. The total in the United States jumped from 702 in 1975 to 3,040 in 2003.

Liberals say traditional rules discourage vocations and call for reforms including married and women priests. Conservatives blame the drop on modernising reforms and say the Church has to become more orthodox and more Catholic to attract new priests.

Celibacy

The clergy shortage and the scandal of priests sexually abusing children in the United States, Ireland and several European countries has prompted reformers to urge an end to the ancient tradition of priestly celibacy.

But the Church values celibacy as a gift from God that frees priests to devote their lives fully to serve Him. It believes personal faults and not celibacy drive errant priests to sin.

While no change of celibacy is expected in the foreseeable future, reformers think the Vatican could agree to ordain viri probati (Latin for men of proven character). They would be middle aged or older, with grown-up families if married.

Sexual morality

Pope Paul VI's 1968 encyclical Humanae Vitae banning artificial birth control opened a wide gulf between the Church and many faithful. Many Catholics now engage in premarital sex, use contraception and get divorced at about the same level as Protestants and Jews, surveys show.

Pope John Paul II vigorously preached the virtues of premarital chastity and natural family planning but made little headway.

"He simply has not won people over on birth control," said Father Thomas Reese, editor of the US Jesuit magazine America.

The next Pope will also face the growing acceptance in the West of homosexuals, whom the Vatican officially considers "disordered" and unfit for holy orders - even though there are already many gays in the clergy.

Women and laity

The increasing equality between the sexes in developed countries has also led activists there to complain the Church has a stained-glass ceiling barring women priests.

Pope John Paul II has ruled out ordaining women completely and there is scant prospect of change in the coming decades or more. But a risk of their alienation from a male-dominated Church remains.

This is a key issue since mothers and teachers transmit the faith to young Catholics, among whom the Church hopes to find pious young men ready to become priests. If women become anticlerical, Fr Reese remarked, "then we're in real trouble".

As priests become rarer, lay people have taken over more and more parish tasks. Traditionalists dislike the trend and have tried to reassert the priest's predominant role.

Collegiality

"Collegiality," shorthand for devolving decision-making from the Vatican to bishops around the world, became a recurring theme during Pope John Paul II's centralised papacy.

Vatican II reforms aimed to involve local bishops more in Church decisions, but Pope John Paul II went back on several of them. He also barred several liberal theologians from teaching.

A recent draft document showed that Vatican traditionalists also wanted to rein in other innovations such as altar girls and dancing and applauding in church. The proposal baffled and upset many churchgoers and looks likely to be watered down considerably if it is eventually published.

Religious tolerance

Pope John Paul II has arguably been the Pope most open to other religions, but his doctrinal advisers have issued statements that other Christians say show a "Catholic superiority complex" contradicting his actions.

Relations with Muslims will be a major issue for the next Pope, French Cardinal Paul Poupard, head of the Vatican's Council for Culture, said. "I think it's the big challenge today...this is crucial for the future."