Lebanon needs new consensus to avoid instability

Lebanon might plunge into political turmoil and insecurity unless a new consensus is reached soon to repair rifts over Syrian influence and define Hizbollah's role, analysts and politicians said yesterday.

As Syrian troops start pulling out after a 29-year presence, strains are evident in the precarious political, religious and communal balance achieved since Lebanon's 1975-90 civil war.

With the uncertainty left by the retreating Syrians, fears are rising that political tensions could spill into violence.

"The Syrian withdrawal is a political earthquake that has destroyed the compromise that existed in Lebanon since the civil war," said a veteran Lebanese columnist who asked not to be named. "What is needed now is a new political compromise."

A huge pro-Syrian demonstration called by the Shi'ite Muslim Hizbollah guerilla group on Tuesday underlined the divisions in a country also swept by protests against Damascus since the February 14 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri.

Hizbollah's show of strength showed that "people power" is not a monopoly of Syria's mostly Maronite Christian and Druze critics, and provided a reminder that disarming its anti-Israel guerillas as a UN resolution demands will be no easy task.

The rally, among Lebanon's biggest, brought hundreds of thousands of mainly Shi'ite demonstrators, into the heart of Beirut to back Syria and support Hizbollah's armed role.

"Lebanon today is in a state of sharp political division. Calls for reason are not being heard amidst the noise of demonstrators from both sides, loyalists and opposition," columnist Faisal Salman, wrote in the leftist As-Safir daily.

"Both sides agree on hoisting the Lebanese flag only. But fear comes from (demonstrators) starting a conflict by using the sticks carrying the flags against each other," he added.

There have been a few shootings and brawls involving rival groups, but popular protests have so far remained peaceful.

US President George W. Bush has demanded that Syrian troops quit Lebanon before parliamentary elections in May.

"The Lebanese people have the right to determine their future free from domination by a foreign power. The Lebanese people have the right to choose their own parliament this spring free of intimidation," Mr Bush said.

"And that new government will have the help of the international community in building sound political, economic, and military institutions," he promised.

But Hizbollah's rally did not fit the US could play out and what practical help he could provide in keeping Lebanon stable.

Hizbollah, viewed by Washington as a terrorist organisation, is as much in Bush's sights as Syria's military presence.

The movement's chief, Hassan Nasrallah, rejects last year's UN Security Council Resolution 1559 which stipulates a Syrian pullout and the disarming of Hizbollah.

"If there was an international decision to disarm the resistance, by God tell me who can take away the weapons from all these resistance fighters," pro-Syrian cabinet minister Wisam Wahab said at the Hizbollah-led rally.

Prime Minister Omar Karami, set to be reappointed after he resigned last week, said in February he feared the Lebanese army would crumble if it were sent to take away Hizbollah's weapons.

Analysts and diplomats ruled out any chance of foreign peacekeepers stabilising Lebanon or disarming Hizbollah.