Syria's Lebanon pull-back plan too little, too late

If Syria expects its promise to pull troops gradually from Lebanon to calm international pressure, it should think again, diplomats and analysts said.

Syria, whose dominance of Lebanon has come under intense fire since last month's killing of a Lebanese ex-prime minister, would have to do much more, much faster, to convince its critics or its allies that it is letting go of its neighbour.

"The problem with Syrian diplomacy is they're always too late. If they'd said this two months ago it would have been easier to rally round. Not now," said a senior western diplomat.

President Bashar al-Assad on Saturday announced plans for a troop withdrawal, but did not spell out its timing or scope. On Monday he agreed with his Lebanese counterpart Emile Lahoud that Syrian forces would pull back to Lebanon's eastern Bekaa Valley this month and then decide how long they should stay.

Mr Assad's move was cautiously welcomed by some of his European critics, but Washington dismissed it as "half-measures".

Syrian forces entered Lebanon early in the 1975-1990 civil war. They have remained ever since, although troop numbers have dropped in recent years from a peak of 40,000. The United States demands a full and immediate withdrawal, accusing Syria of impeding Middle East peace by supporting terrorism - a charge Damascus denies.

"Pressure will continue because Syria was too vague. There is no real timeline, no numbers, no mention of intelligence services," said one western diplomat.

Arab countries, who have joined calls for Syria to leave Lebanon, will probably mute their criticism if Damascus shows its plans for full withdrawal are serious, analysts say.

But even a full pullout will leave the problem of Lebanon's Shi'ite Muslim Hizbollah, a political-military group viewed by the United States as a terrorist organisation, but seen by many Arabs as a legitimate resistance movement.

Hizbollah, backed by Iran and Syria, is firmly in US sights. It has already declared it has no intention of giving up arms it sees as a crucial deterrent to arch-foe Israel.

Syrian analysts say Hizbollah, not the Syrian presence in Lebanon, is the real target of the US administration.

"Syrian withdrawal is nothing for the Americans. If they really cared about Lebanese sovereignty and elections they would have done something about it years ago," said Thabet Salem. "The important thing is Hizbollah and that's a very complex issue."

Washington and Paris, divided over Iraq, joined forces last year to push through UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which demands that foreign forces leave Lebanon and that militias - meaning Hizbollah - disband and disarm.

Hizbollah, whose guerillas helped end Israel's 22-year occupation of south Lebanon in 2000, was the only militia to keep its guns when the civil war ended 15 years ago. It has built a strong popular base with a network of social services.

The question of how to disarm the group, which has a bloc in Lebanon's parliament, has been looming since Israel left.

Hizbollah says it will not disarm even if Israeli troops quit the disputed Shebaa Farms on the border between Lebanon, Israel and the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights.

"Pressure on Syria will not subside," said Syrian political analyst Ahmad Samir al-Taqi. "The US will focus on Lebanon and Syria to make them lay down all military, political and economic cards for peace with Israel. The big issue is Hizbollah."

Mr Assad said on Saturday any Syrian withdrawal would revive pressure on Lebanon to make a separate peace with Israel.

Israeli officials have already floated the idea - anathema to Syria, which wants to be part of any peace deal, with the return of the Golan Heights an essential ingredient.

Syria knows that no such agreement is likely without US support, but its ties with Washington have rarely been worse.

Already strained by US accusations of Syrian support for Iraqi insurgents as well as Hizbollah and Palestinian militants, they sank further when Washington recalled its ambassador after the killing of former Lebanese premier Rafik al-Hariri.

Syria also alienated European countries by what its Lebanese opponents say was its insistence on extending the presidential term of its ally Lahoud in September.

A trade and aid pact with the European Union, which Syria had hoped would counterbalance US economic and political sanctions imposed last year, is unlikely to be signed as long as UN resolution 1559 is unfulfilled, western diplomats say.

"Why does it take a mountain of pressure for the Syrians to give an inch?" said one diplomat. "If only they were a little more cooperative, like they are on the Iraq border issue now. Why did they not do that sooner? It's the same with Lebanon."

Factbox - Key facts about Hizbollah

Lending support to Syria, the Lebanese Hizbollah group called a mass rally in Beirut yesterday to denounce what it sees as western meddling in Lebanon.

Following are key facts about the group:

¤ Hizbollah, or Party of God, was founded by Iranian Revolutionary Guards during Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 1982. The Shi'ite Muslim group adhered to the teachings of late Iranian revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini who vowed holy war against Israel and its Western allies.

¤ Funded and armed by Tehran, the group began a guerilla war to evict Israeli forces from Lebanon. Shadowy groups linked to Hizbollah launched suicide attacks on western targets and took Westerners hostage in Beirut. The most spectacular attack was a suicide bombing that destroyed the US Marine headquarters in Beirut in October 1983, killing 241 servicemen.

¤ Hizbollah announced its political programme in 1985, aiming at establishing an Iranian-style republic in Lebanon. It fought rival Lebanese groups until the civil war ended in 1990 and kept up attacks on Israeli forces.

¤ An Israeli helicopter strike killed Hizbollah chief Sheikh Abbas al-Musawi in February 1992, sparking a wave of sympathy with the group among many Lebanese. Musawi had set up a welfare arm caring for the long-deprived Shi'ite community. Current Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah replaced him. The group entered parliament in 1992 in the first general election after the war, effectively abandoning its goal of setting up an Islamic state.

¤ Hizbollah withstood large-scale Israeli bombing campaigns in 1993 and 1996. The group emerged with some international recognition that its attacks against Israeli military forces were justified acts of resistance.

¤ Israel ended its 22-year occupation in Lebanon and pulled out in May 2000. Lebanese from various sects and political affiliations hailed Hizbollah as liberation heroes. The group vowed to keep fighting as long as Israel remained in the disputed Shebaa Farms border area. It also declared support for a Palestinian uprising against Israel. Hizbollah has since launched sporadic attacks in the Shebaa Farms.

¤ Hizbollah and Israel exchanged prisoners in January 2004. Israel swapped more than 400 Palestinians and Lebanese for a captive Israeli businessman and the remains of three soldiers.

¤ UN Security Council resolution 1559, sponsored by the US and France, and adopted in September 2004, called for all Lebanese militias to be disbanded and disarmed. Hizbollah, the only such militia, has defied the resolution.