Has climate change occurred in the 20th century?
Yes, many observations indicate that the world's climate has changed during the 20th century. In the northern hemisphere, over the past 1,000 years: the temperature increase in the 20th century was the largest and the 1990s were the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year.

What changes have been noted?
An observed rise in sea level (10 to 20 cm) during the 20th century may be related to the increase in global mean temperatures. Meteorological data for the Maltese islands indicates an increase in the mean annual air temperature of about 0.5°C in 77 years similar to the rest of the Mediterranean during the last century.

What causes climate change?
Natural effects (solar variability and active volcanoes) cannot alone explain the observed warming - the role of human activities must be significant. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the strong warming of the last 50 years cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone, but requires the inclusion of the effects of emissions generated by human activity.

What other changes may come about?
Current climate models predict that global average temperature could increase to as much as 6°C by the end of this century, depending on the amounts of greenhouse gas emissions and climate sensitivity. This would lead to sea levels rising by nine to 88 cms by 2100. For the central Mediterranean, there is 50 per cent probability that the average temperature will increase by 3°C by 2100. In this region, sensitivity of temperature to the enhanced greenhouse effect is nine per cent higher than the global average. Seasonal patterns will be retained with an approximate uniform temperature rise.

It is envisaged that there will be 50 per cent probability of a 17 per cent decrease in annual total precipitation (rain) by 2100. Rainfall will decrease in autumn and increase in spring. Current trends indicate a one centimetre per year local sea level rise.

For more information log on to http://www.mepa.org.mt/environment/Climate_Change/mainpage.htm

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