Lebanon's stability threatened again

The assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri has sent shock waves not only throughout Lebanon but also throughout the international community. The killing rekindled memories of the country's sectarian strife and bloodshed that characterised the 1975-1990 period when Lebanon was torn apart by a terrible civil war.

Lebanon is indeed a very complex country which is made up of many different religious groups and minorities - there are 15 political blocs in Parliament representing these groups - which have co-existed more or less peacefully since the civil war ended 15 years ago (and, of course, before the civil war started in 1975). This fragile co-existence, however, suffered a major setback as a result of the massive car bomb in Beirut on Monday that killed the former premier and 14 others.

Many Opposition Lebanese politicians as well as many outside observers are now pointing their finger at Syria, the power-broker in Lebanon, and believe that it orchestrated the killing of Mr Hariri because of his opposition to the presence of Syrian troops in the country. The United States has even recalled its ambassador in Damascus for urgent consultations.

Syria has maintained a military presence in Lebanon ever since it intervened in the country's civil war and has been reluctant to have them withdrawn despite growing opposition in Lebanon against their presence - which cuts across the religious divide - and despite last year's United Nations Security Council resolution which called on Damascus to pull its troops out of Lebanon and which Syria had believed was orchestrated by Mr Hariri.

Mr Hariri was largely credited with having paved the way for the reconstruction of Lebanon in the aftermath of the civil war. A Sunni Muslim and self-made billionaire with close links to the Saudi royal family and French President Jacques Chirac, Mr Hariri presided over Lebanon's construction boom and its re-emergence as a centre for trade, tourism, and financial services in the Middle East in the aftermath of the civil war, during which he served as Prime Minister for 12 out of the last 15 years. He was a symbol of Lebanon's return to normality and prosperity - and now that symbol is no more.

Mr Hariri always had a vision of a truly independent Lebanon with close ties - but not subservient to - Syria. In fact he frequently clashed with Damascus while in office. The last straw came last October when Syria insisted that Lebanon's pro-Syrian President, Emile Lahoud, be given a three-year extension of his term in office by the Lebanese Parliament.

Mr Hariri, like many Muslims and Christians in the country, was opposed to the move, and was summoned to Damascus where he was told by President Assad how to vote during a tense meeting which, according to some media reports, lasted just 10 minutes.

Mr Hariri did vote, reluctantly, for a three-year extension for President Lahoud, but resigned soon after and began focusing on the country's parliamentary elections being held in April. Mr Hariri and his political allies were expected to win by a landslide, which would have made things very uncomfortable for the Syrians.

Syria has long been involved in Lebanon's internal affairs, and historically, many Syrian nationalists consider Lebanon to be part of Syria. Syria has also been accused of being behind many other assassinations in Lebanon, such as the 1977 killing of the Druze leader, Kamal Jumblatt (the father of today's Opposition Leader Walid Jumblatt) and the 1982 killing of the pro-Israeli Lebanese president-elect, Bashir Gemayel.

Some also suspect Syria of being behind last October's assassination attempt against Marwan Hamade, the Economy Minister who resigned in protest at the extension of the Lahoud presidency.

The Syrian government also has very close links with Hizbollah, the Shi'ite militant group that emerged as a result of the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, and often uses this guerrilla movement as a way of hitting at Israel. Furthermore, Syria has a lot of economic interests in Lebanon with at least one million Syrians working in the country.

So what happens now? Anti-Syrian sentiment is running high in Lebanon, as the scenes from Mr Hariri's funeral showed. William Burns, the US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, said that he hoped that something positive will come out of Mr Hariri's death, meaning that anti-Syrian feeling had become so intense that its troops would have to leave Lebanon. So if Syria actually was behind the assassination, it clearly miscalculated both world and international public opinion, and ironically, the killing of Lebanon's former Prime Minister could actually signal the exodus of Syrian troops in Lebanon - exactly what it was meant to have prevented.

Under President Bashar al-Assad, Syria has unfortunately become more isolated internationally. The United States and its allies, for example, have repeatedly accused Syria not only of sponsoring terrorism but also of allowing Al-Qaeda and former Iraqi Baathists to use its territory to infiltrate Iraq to fuel the insurgency there.

Diplomatic pressure must be stepped up against Damascus to stop its support for international terrorism and to comply with the UN Security Council resolution to withdraw its troops from Lebanon.

Furthermore, French President Jacques Chirac is right to ask for an international investigation to look into the assassination of Mr Hariri, and the Security Council should do just that. If Syrian complicity in this killing is proved, then the UN should impose harsh sanctions against Syria - certainly Damascus should not be allowed to get away with murder.

What is quite remarkable is that Mr Hariri's funeral in Beirut was attended by hundreds of thousands of Muslims and Christians who were united in grief and anger at Syria. The toll of church bells and prayers from the mosque showed that everybody was mourning the death of Mr Hariri, who had managed to earn the respect of the Lebanese for his efforts at reconstructing the country. Funeral mourners shouted insults at Syria and the Syria President. One mourner held up a placard saying: "Hey, Syria, who is next?" Another banner read: "It's obvious, no?"

This time it seems that Syria has gone too far - this assassination will have profound consequences for Lebanon, Syria and the wider Middle East. Perhaps, as America's top diplomat in the region remarked, something positive will emerge as a result of this horrendous killing.