Hariri killing could cement splits over Syria

Rafik al-Hariri's last public words before his assassination:
"Mistakes have been made and are still being made. I don't see that as being in the interest of the country. Everyone should realise that Lebanon cannot continue without an internal national accord and one with Syria."

Former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri's assassination on Monday may have robbed Lebanon's opposition of a key player, but could end up boosting calls for an end to Syria's grip on their country.

The attack on Mr Hariri, who masterminded Lebanon's rebuilding from the 1975-1990 civil war, could not come at a more sensitive time for Lebanon, two months ahead of parliamentary polls widely seen as a referendum on Syria's military and political sway.

Mr Hariri, who resigned in October but remained influential, had joined growing calls by Lebanese opposition politicians for Syria to withdraw its 14,000 troops from its tiny neighbour.

Those demands are backed by a UN Security Council resolution that has left Damascus increasingly isolated.

"Hariri's departure will leave a huge vacuum politically in Lebanon. He's not simply a Lebanese leader, he's probably the most well known Lebanese politician abroad," Lebanese political analyst Farid al-Khazen said.

"His role is central and crucial in the opposition ... If elections were held next week in Beirut, pro-Hariri people would have a landslide. It would be safer for the government to think about the possibility of postponing elections."

Delaying the elections would keep in power a pro-Syrian government that replaced Mr Hariri's team after the Lebanese Parliament voted in November to extend the term of Syrian-backed President Emile Lahoud.

Opposition politicians said that extension, which deepened divisions between Lebanon's pro-Syrian and anti-Syrian camps, was passed under pressure from Damascus.

They said Syria and the Syrian-backed Lebanese government bore responsibility for Mr Hariri's killing and asked the international community for protection, a move bound to compound growing international pressure on Syria to leave Lebanon. "There is already some pressure, it may increase pressure on Syria. Whatever the Syrians say, the international community is going to try to put some blame on Syria," said Sami Baroudi, political science professor at the Lebanese American University.

"I don't think the Syrians are in a more comfortable position now than they were when he was around."

Lebanon had just begun to bury images of a civil war that tore the country apart and try to reclaim its former place as an Arab tourism and finance hub - a drive symbolised by Mr Hariri.

The highest-profile assassination since the war may have brought the bad memories flooding back, but analysts said it did not herald a new slide into sectarian bloodshed because opposition to Syria's influence crossed religious divides.

"If those behind it were trying to bring havoc and instability to Lebanese politics, they should forget it. I don't think the Lebanese, after 15 years of civil war are ready for another," said Lebanese political analyst Walid Mubarak.

Lebanon's information minister urged the Lebanese to stick together to "thwart every attempt aiming to spread strife".

Syria's loyalists say only its military presence has prevented Lebanon from already collapsing back into chaos.

"It's a signal to those opponents: this can happen to you. It lays the ground for increased tension within Lebanon, but it's too early to tell if it will destabilise the country," said Magnus Ranstorp, terrorism analyst at Britain's St Andrew's University. "The scale and scope of the attack showed the professional level of the operation against a protected figure like Mr Hariri. It's unlikely to have been done by amateurs. The sheer size of it was massive, almost overkill, to ensure he would not survive." But many in Lebanon's business community, who had pinned their hopes for the country's economic recovery largely on the construction tycoon, were stunned by Mr Hariri's death.

Most were reluctant to predict what impact his death would have on Lebanon's economy but expected the central bank and commercial banks to close as part of a mourning period, allowing investors time to evaluate post-Hariri economic prospects. "Capital is a coward. Whenever they see something of this sort, it's not going to be very promising for reconstruction," Mr Mubarak said.