A ray of hope in the Middle East

The election of Mahmoud Abbas as the President of the Palestinian Authority, combined with the formation of a new Israeli coalition government, offers a ray of hope in the Palestinian-Israeli dispute and better prospects for the Palestinian people.

Mr Abbas, who was sworn in as President yesterday, won about 66 per cent of the popular vote compared to 20 per cent for his nearest rival, Mustafa Barghouti, a human rights activist. The candidate of the mainstream Fatah movement, Mr Abbas told jubilant supporters after his victory: "Ahead of us is a jihad to ensure safety and security, the release of our prisoners and the creation of the Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital."

The Palestinian election is in itself nothing short of remarkable. Is it not ironic that one of the few successful elections in the Arab world has taken place in the Palestinian territories, still under Israeli military occupation? Considering the call for an election boycott by militant groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, as well as the sense of frustration and hopelessness that many Palestinians feel, the voter turnout of 70 per cent is very good indeed. Furthermore, one must also give credit to the Israelis for allowing the elections to take place without any hindrance.

Internally, one hopes that the election of Mr Abbas will put an end to the cronyism, corruption and political incompetence that prevailed under Yasser Arafat, and that accountability, transparency and the rule of law will be strengthened. The fact that Mr Abbas's main rival in the election, a secular moderate, got one fifth of the popular vote is very encouraging and augurs well for democracy in a future Palestinian state.

Both Mr Abbas and Mr Barghouti ran on a platform of non-violence and peaceful co-existence with Israel, and voters overwhelmingly voted in favour of this. Of course, Mr Abbas will face an immediate challenge from Palestinian hard-line groups opposed to any reconciliation with Israel. In fact, only last Wednesday, Islamic Jihad gunmen killed an Israeli settler and wounded three Israeli soldiers in an ambush in the Gaza Strip, in a clear defiance of the new Palestinian President. A statement by the militant group said that such attacks would continue "until Palestine is returned, through the barrels of our guns."

Israel immediately retaliated after the attack, of course, and on Thursday raided the hideouts of suspected Islamic militants in Gaza, killing a number of them. On Wednesday, Israel also killed two Hamas members in a raid in the West Bank. This is exactly what the extremists want: to create a cycle of violence from which there is no return and to destroy any chance of a peaceful settlement of the dispute.

The new Israeli coalition government, which consists of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's Likud Party, the moderate Labour Party headed by Shimon Peres and the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism Party, took office on Monday.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who has long urged the United States and the international community to focus more on the Middle East, remarked during an interview with the BBC: "For the first time in a long time we've got a possibility of progress here. You have got a new Israeli government that is committed to try to reinvigorate the peace process and you have got new Palestinian leadership that is committed to the same thing."

Mr Sharon intends to meet Mr Abbas as soon as possible to kick-start the peace process, but has made it clear that he will not talk to the Palestinians unless they crack down on the militants. Mr Abbas will not have an easy task here, and nobody should assume that the Palestinian Authority has de facto control over these militant groups.

Perhaps the best thing Mr Abbas could achieve is the promise of a ceasefire from the militants, but I doubt this is possible. Hamas and Islamic Jihad simply do not want to acknowledge the right of Israel to exist and will never lay down their arms. Mr Abbas must, however, make a genuine effort to rein in the militants.

On the other hand, the best way to reduce support for Hamas and Islamic Jihad among Palestinians is for Israel and the Palestinian Authority to restart the peace process and produce tangible results, and for Israel to stop its armed incursions into the Palestinian territories.

So, what really are the prospects for peace, and do all the hopes expressed in the aftermath of Mr Arafat's death mean that the late Palestinian leader was indeed an obstacle to peace? There are mixed views about the latter question but the simple fact is that Israel considered him to be an obstacle to peace and refused to talk to him. With the election of Mr Abbas, this obstacle (in Israel's view) no longer exists. So a new opportunity has arisen, coupled with a new more moderate Israeli government.

Both sides will have to take advantage of this, make compromises and try not to be influenced by their extremist compatriots. For a start, Israel must continue with its planned withdrawal from Gaza, freeze the construction of all new settlements in the West Bank, withdraw to its pre-intifada positions and reconsider its security wall being built. The Palestinians, on the other hand, must stop the intifada and make a genuine effort to put an end to all terrorist activities carried out by Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

The international community, especially the US, must make it clear that the goal of any peace process is the establishment of a free, secular, democratic Palestinian state on nearly all the West Bank and Gaza, co-existing peacefully with a secure Israel.