Scant progress on post-Kyoto as climate conference ends

In the face of dire warnings of the catastrophic future impacts of climate change unless nations slash greenhouse gas emissions over the next 20 years, a UN conference ending yesterday in Buenos Aires only produced a weak compromise for future action.

Attended by over 6,000 participants from 189 nations, and from industry and NGOs, the 10th conference of the Contracting Parties (COP 10) to the 1994 UN Framework Conference on Climate Change (UNFCCC) disappointed expectations.

The Minister for Rural Affairs and the Environment, George Pullicino, attended the three-day ministerial segment which started last Wednesday.

Representing Malta before the minister's arrival, Malta's Ambassador for Environmental Affairs, Michael Zammit Cutajar, who until 2002 was the executive secretary of the UNFCCC, described the final compromise as "a finger-hold, like hanging on by your nails".

The UNFCCC's 1997 Kyoto Protocol will enter into force on February 16, 2005, mandating greenhouse gas emission cuts on 30 industrialised nations, to generate an overall 5.2% reduction below 1990 levels by 2012.

The vague plan emerging from an all-night negotiating session ending yesterday morning, provided for an informal 'diplomatic seminar' in 2005 about post-2012 commitments, not the series of seminars culminating in formal multilateral negotiations which EU and many other nations wanted to see, but the US opposed.

Responsible for 21% of world greenhouse gas emissions, the US withdrew in 2001 from the Kyoto Protocol.

But US expectations that the Protocol would be still-born were overturned by a major EU diplomatic drive to obtain the necessary number of ratifications (now 135), culminating in Russia's agreement last November - which enabled the Protocol to enter into force.

In Buenos Aires, the US repeated its refusal to ratify the Protocol, while promoting long-range US programmes to develop clean energy technologies, and repeating doubts on the present state of 'climate science'.

The US also renewed demands that major emitting developing countries, such as India, Brazil and China must make major commitments to emission cuts.

In contrast, a number of high-emission US states have introduced Kyoto-style measures to attain the Protocol's goals.

Under the Kyoto Protocol, contracting parties must start discussing, post-2012 architecture in 2005, with a view to agreeing on detailed negotiation rules by 2008; but such discussions would not include the US.

To get around the dilemma of how to get the US on board in some way, Prime Minister Tony Blair has vowed to make climate change the centrepiece of the UK hosted G8 summit next July.

A high level Anglo-German seminar on climate change inaugurated by the Queen in Berlin in November, will be followed by a UK-hosted major scientific conference in February, and a ministerial conference in March of the 20 top GHG emitting countries.

By July, Mr Blair hopes to have won US support for some kind of new international treaty to be endorsed by the G8 to ensure deep emission cuts by 2025, which scientists insist are urgently needed to head off catastrophic impacts on weather systems, biodiversity, water resources, coastal areas and world food growing potential.

To meet US objections to Kyoto Protocol-style mandatory cuts, this treaty could perhaps offer nations a 'menu' approach, including voluntary agreements, technology development and transfer, and a major boost to renewable energies.

Substantial aid would also be offered to vulnerable developing countries to adapt to the expected harsh impacts of climate change.

Insistence by OPEC countries, led by Saudi Arabia, for compensation for the impact on their export revenues of oil-use reduction policies adopted by industrialised countries to reduce CO2 emissions, is another complicating factor which the proposed treaty could attempt to address.

Later this week, the EU Environment Council, which Mr Pullicino will attend, is set to evaluate the COP 10 outcome and prepare for the Spring European Council of heads of state/government which will adopt a new wide-ranging climate change post-2012 strategy for the Union, and its stance at the G8 summit.

In January, the European Commission will issue a proposal to member states, partly based on a prior two-stage stakeholder consultation this autumn - with the call for written submissions followed by a one-day public consultation (November 22) for some 350 EU industry, science and environmental NGO representatives (which included one from Nature Trust Malta).

Also in January EU will launch its Emissions Trading Scheme covering over 12,000 plants (including Malta's two power stations) responsible for roughly half of the EU's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

The scheme enables plant owners to buy and sell emission permits, as well as earn credits from investments in climate friendly technologies in developing countries.

"One of the weaknesses of climate change strategy is that it is negotiated by environment ministers, but then encounters resistance from economic ministers", Mr Zammit Cutajar told The Sunday Times.

"Another is that the US will not move without China, and vice versa. The challenge is to get them both on board - essential to obtain major cuts scientists urge must be made within the next 20 years."