Damned consensus... (2)

There will be no political consensus between now and the general election because, in the Maltese politics of tit-for-tat, Labour will not fail to recall that the Nationalists never offered any quarter. Labour knows that the coming election is its to lose. Political logic dictates that, even if one were to ignore the performance of the government. That performance will not be ignored. It falters and stumbles with indicative regularity.

Even natural and long-standing government supporters show they feel "their side" has been in for far too long. Some of them will recall that Eddie Fenech Adami used to insist that for the sake of a democracy's health, there should be a change of government every 10 years.

Labour knows that, basically, what it has to do is to ensure that its own natural support is not, this time, fragmented and that, with the EU issue out of the way, that should not happen. There lingers some lack of enthusiasm for Alfred Sant's leadership and resentment that he missed the opportunity to win the 2003 election. But, above all, Labour supporters yearn for "their side" to return to office.

The Labour leader is unlikely to make any slips this time. Any dilution of the principle enunciated by the late UK Conservative politician Ian McLeod - that the role of the opposition is attack, attack, attack - would anger Labour supporters. The leadership, owing no favours, is not about to risk that. Labour shows unmistakable determination to equate any move towards consensus as extending a helping hand to a floundering government which, left to its own devices, seems set to continue in freefall.

Expect the heat to rise rather than ease between now and the general election. Talk of consensus is merely an attempt at diversion. Lawrence Gonzi knows that Labour knows that. When he mouths "consensus" he does so political tongue in cheek. An effort crafted to show up the Labour opposition as irresponsible because it does not heed his call to put the country first. Labour simply sticks out its own political tongue to that.

It will do unto the others as the others did unto them. The die is cast. Minds are set. There will be some careful bilateral approach to a few issues. But no consensus policy will evolve.

That reality scenario is a threat. Unless there is consensus on a tough economic programme, recovery will remain painfully difficult. Reality, however, dictates that one should see whether there is any opportunity in that reality. And, yes, there is.

Dr Gonzi, barring a class AAA miracle, will be defeated at the general election. Not so much for what he is, for he is a decent chap. But for what he inherited, the way he let it deteriorate further and because of the wise logic of political cycles.

Dr Sant, other than for some abysmal catastrophic gaffe, will win the election. Not so much because he has earned it, though he has not yet done himself justice. But because his opponents are worn out and the country is tired of them.

Mine may be a deterministic view of what lies ahead. I see it as a likely outcome of the situation and the reality scenario. If that is indeed the case both Dr Gonzi and Dr Sant can help the country as well as themselves by reaching one specific consensus - to act, each of them, in a manner that reflects the inevitable outcome.

Dr Gonzi should become a national leader and stop being a Don Camillo. He cannot, even if he were one of the SuperKid Twins, continue to lead the administration, head tourism initiatives, negotiate with Skanska, to-and-fro to EU meetings, discuss with the constituted bodies, chair Cabinet meetings, speak every Sunday at a Nationalist Party political gee-up, attend to his personal commitments, snatch one or two hours of sleep now and then.

He should conserve his energy, stick to taking tough decisions and implementing them. And, when he moves into opposition, do so with the self-satisfaction that he tried to be the top national manager to the best of his ability.

Dr Sant should discard the role of Peppone and become the Prime Minister in waiting. He cannot, even if he were the other SuperKid Twin, continue to plan and play politics 24 hours a day, work out how to be negative every minute of them, go into every nook and cranny of the Labour Party, always with an eye on the bespoken engine back at HQ, meet constituted bodies, write briefs for himself and for others, hold the hand of those he feels do not walk steadily, nap now and then.

He should channel his energy into telling it as it really is, preparing the electorate, especially the expectant Labour grassroots, for the tough initial years they'll have to endure, prepare to win office because he deserves to, not simply because the other lot are so undeserving and begging to be thrown out. And, when he becomes Prime Minister again, do so with the satisfaction that he earned the job, and could tackle it within a reality framework, tested by the reality of each dawning day.

Such a consensus is possible. Politics is, by the way, the art of the possible.

(Concluded)