Pope marks 26th anniversary, confounds soothsayers

Pope John Paul marked the 26th anniversary of his pontificate yesterday, defying medical odds and confounding predictions about any successor.

Debilitated by Parkinson's disease, unable to walk, sometimes unable to speak clearly, the 84-year-old pontiff has defied premature predictions of his imminent demise for at least 10 years.

Yesterday afternoon he was due to celebrate a Mass at the same time he was elected on October 16, 1978 as history's first Polish Pope and the first non-Italian pontiff in 455 years.

He is already the third-longest serving Pope in history. Only St Peter and Pius IX served longer, both reigning for more than 30 years in the first and 19th centuries, respectively.

A close aide of the Polish Pope told reporters recently that a number of journalists and critics who wrongly predicted his death over the past decade "are already in heaven."

But while some of his critics may already be in paradise, is the Pope himself running the shop back here on earth?

Aides say yes. Critics say no.

On Friday, he received three bishops, one cardinal, a group of pilgrims and attended an anniversary concert in his honour by the chorus and band of Russia's Red Army, something that would have been unthinkable just 15 years ago.

Critics say he is not in charge, or at least, not as much as he should be.

In his new book, The Pontiff in Winter, British writer John Cornwell says the Pope is often distant in private meetings and suggests that the Vatican is being run by papal aides.

John Paul has left a conservative stamp on his Church of a billion souls, naming nearly all of the cardinals who will choose his successor in a secret conclave after his death.

But front-runners in the succession list appear and fade like the morning fog over St Peter's Square in winter.

In 1994 the magazine of a leading US newspaper ran a cover story on his decline and named six possible successors.

Only two are still in the running. The others have either died, resigned or turned 80, the cut-off age after which a cardinal cannot enter a conclave.

One who faded from pundits' list but has now resurfaced is 71-year-old Nigerian Cardinal Francis Arinze, who would become the first African Pope in some 1,500 years.

Arinze has worked in the Vatican for 20 years, many of them as the Pope's point man for relations with Islam.

Since September 11, 2001 and the war in Iraq, a key requisite in the papal job profile is the ability to reach out to the Muslim world.

Other candidates mentioned recently include Claudio Hummes of Brazil, Dionigi Tettamanzi of Italy, Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga of Honduras and Christoph Schoenborn of Austria.