Challenge Blair at your peril, deputy warns rivals

Tony Blair's combative deputy warned potential leadership rivals yesterday they would not be forgiven for challenging Britain's prime minister and threatening electoral success.

Mr Blair's Conservative opponents said his shock announcement that he wanted to serve a full third term in power but not a fourth would leave him in political limbo but their prospects look bleaker than the prime minister's, polls suggest.

As the Conservatives began their annual party conference, Mr Blair's Labour party was alive with speculation about who would eventually succeed him and when.

Many say Mr Blair, recuperating from a heart procedure, cannot rule up to a probable 2009 election because by then his government will be gripped by a succession fight and with his days numbered, his power will leach away.

But that must not happen ahead of next year's expected general election or a promised referendum on an EU constitution, likely in 2006, Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott said.

"The party will feel very strongly against anyone that threatens our election," Mr Prescott told BBC television. "The full wrath of the party will be visited on those who decide to threaten that and feed any speculation about early selections."

Mr Blair's decision, which dovetailed with hospital treatment to correct a heart flutter, has shocked allies of his powerful finance minister, Gordon Brown.

Rumours have swirled for years that Mr Blair struck a deal that he would one day stand aside for Mr Brown but the Chancellor of the Exchequer's cohorts signalled earlier this year that this would happen before the next election or, at worst, soon afterwards.

"The second Labour term... has been paralysed by the rift between (Mr) Blair and (Mr) Brown," Conservative leader Michael Howard told BBC television. "Now it is going to be much, much worse."

Mr Prescott also confirmed what appeared to be a dramatic lack of communication - Mr Brown was only told of Mr Blair's plans a little before they were made public late on Thursday, as he arrived in Washington for a meeting of G7 finance ministers.

"I know he knew it before the announcement came out but only shortly after he stepped off the aeroplane which was shortly before the announcement," Mr Prescott said.

But if Mr Blair has problems, re-election next year does not appear to be one of them despite the damage done to his personal ratings by the Iraq war and his false assertion that Saddam Hussein had banned weapons primed for use.

Mr Blair's announcement overshadowed a stunning parliamentary election result in the seat of Hartlepool, northeast England.

Labour held on with a much reduced majority but the Conservatives finished fourth behind the fringe United Kingdom Independence Party, which wants to withdraw from the EU. "It was a bad result, no doubt about that," Mr Howard said. "We don't need a miracle but we do need to do a lot more."

Mr Howard said Mr Blair's loss of public trust over Iraq would be disastrous if he was ever forced to lead Britain into war again.

"It was right to go to war and it's right to tell the truth. He didn't tell the truth about what the intelligence was telling him," he said.

Mr Prescott said it was Mr Howard, not Mr Blair, who was in jeopardy. But despite his deputy's efforts, there is no guarantee Mr Blair will stay at the top for five more years, particularly if he loses the EU referendum as polls suggest he might.

"He has got 2 to 2-1/2 years tops of actually being in charge," former Labour health minister Frank Dobson said. "He isn't an asset because he is so closely associated with our disastrous policies in sucking up to the Americans over Iraq."