Less than a month before the publication of the European Commission's recommendation on whether Turkey should start negotiations to join the EU, a leading European Commissioner has sparked controversy with a speech sounding a strong note of caution over Ankara's bid to join the European club.

Frits Bolekestein, responsible for the internal market, said "it is obvious that Turkey must still go through large changes, until it is eligible. Up to the entry their identity will have to change fundamentally".

Mr Bolekestein's remarks will definitely fan the flames of debate ahead of the October 6 Brussels report on Turkey's suitability to be part of the EU.

Enlargement Commissioner Gunther Verheugen yesterday was on an official visit to Turkey to assess the country's development prior to the eventual Commission recommendation.

Addressing the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee last week in Brussels, Mr Verheugen said that entry talks with Turkey could get under way within four to six months of the go-ahead from the EU's leaders.

He said that the commission's report would contain "some minor surprises" and would be "exhaustive, factual and fair". The EU's 25 heads of government will decide on Turkey at their December 17-18 summit in Brussels.

Both the Commission and the member states seem to be divided about whether Turkey should join the EU or not. Some argue that Turkey is not part of Europe and that the Muslim predominance does not fit into the European Union. Britain and Germany are Turkey's main backers while France and Austria are more cautious. At the same time, right-wingers and Christian Democrats in France and Germany are opposed to Turkey's membership on "cultural grounds", arguing that the entry into the EU of almost 70 million Muslims will change Europe forever.

Many EU officials believe that Ankara's accession process could take up to 10 years - ending in 2014 or later - by which time Turkey's population could be as large as Germany's.

The Commission is reportedly divided on the scheduled early October report on Turkey. The report is the Prodi Commission's last major decision. According to a German daily, Die Welt, a few commissioners, among them Energy Commissioner Loyola de Palacio of Spain and Agriculture Commissioner Franz Fischler of Austria have voiced their "doubts and reservations" in connection with Turkey's projected accession.

An independent report published yesterday in Brussels advises the opening of accession negotiations. The report, Turkey in Europe: More than a promise?, was compiled by an independent commission which brings together former heads of state, foreign ministers and European Commissioners. The panel was established in March 2004, and its work was supported by the British Council and the Open Society Institute.

According to the panel's chairman, former Finnish Prime Minister Martii Ahtisaari, the report does not seek to compete with the European Commission's scheduled progress report and recommendation on Turkey.

The debate about Turkey is expected to dominate the EU's agenda for the next weeks.

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