Bush and Kerry: neck and neck

The latest opinion polls released in the United States show that President George W. Bush and his Democratic challenger, John Kerry, are still running neck and neck three months before the country's presidential election in November.

Unless something dramatic happens before that, such as a sudden economic crisis, a massive terrorist attack in the US or a huge turn for the worse in Iraq, it looks like we may witness another repeat of the 2000 presidential election between Mr Bush and Al Gore when the electorate was evenly divided between the two candidates.

It is important to point out that it is both unusual and difficult for an incumbent American president to be defeated and in the post-war period only three sitting presidents have actually lost an election: President Gerald Ford (Republican) in 1976, President Jimmy Carter (Democrat) in 1980 and President George Bush Sr (Republican) in 1992.

There were very strong specific reasons for all three defeats: Mr Ford was identified with Richard Nixon, who resigned two years before over the Watergate scandal; Mr Carter presided over the Iran hostage crisis and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, both of which made America look very weak, and his administration was marred by high inflation and unemployment; and Mr Bush's fourth year in office was ruined by a severe recession.

Otherwise, all the other presidents who stood for re-election were given another term in the White House: Harry Truman in 1948, Dwight Eisenhower in 1956, Lyndon Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1972, Ronald Reagan in 1984 and Bill Clinton in 1996. So the trend is for American voters to give their president another chance, unless, as I have explained, there are very strong reasons not to.

As incumbent presidents are not easily defeated, the pressure is therefore on Senator Kerry to convince the electorate that Mr Bush does not deserve another four years in the White House. Will he manage to do this?

Although the war in Iraq has not gone well for the President, this is clearly not enough for him to be defeated. Public opinion in America is divided on this issue.

We cannot forget that September 11 completely changed the political scenario in the US - President Bush in effect became a war leader and, although many in Europe disapprove of what they see as an overtly unilateralist foreign policy by the Bush administration, many in the US consider Mr Bush to be a strong leader who is best qualified to fight the war on terrorism.

There is no doubt at all that American politics have shifted to the right, and this is not only because of September 11. It is a trend that started with the Reagan presidency back in the 1980s. So any Democratic presidential candidate must keep this in mind and move towards the political centre. In a nutshell, this is why President Clinton was so successful.

So how is Senator Kerry doing so far? He had a fairly good convention in Boston last month and made a good speech - but nothing earth-shattering. However, when he dwelt on national security and defence he could have been speaking at a Republican convention - he promised to increase the size of the military and vowed never to hesitate to use force if this were necessary.

He also said that no nation or institution would be able to veto the use of American military force. Mr Kerry is no doubt trying hard to end the Republicans' traditional monopoly of national security which won them elections on many occasions in the past. His military record in Vietnam will no doubt help him in this regard.

Mr Kerry, however, did couple his hardline national security pledge with a promise to restore America's respect in the world and to rebuild its traditional international alliances. This was naturally welcomed by those who have been disappointed by President Bush's unilateralist foreign policy.

Mr Kerry also ventured into another traditional Republican territory, that of family values, mentioning the word "values" nearly 30 times. So values, patriotism, a strong military and national security, all long-established Republican themes, were given a great deal of importance by Mr Kerry.

Will this be enough for the Democrats to win the election? Former President Clinton thinks not, and I think he is right. In a recent interview Mr Clinton said that if the Democrats fought the election only on this territory, this would benefit President Bush.

Mr Clinton said Mr Bush will try to combine his standing as commander-in-chief at a time of threat with a campaign on the cultural issues that divide America. "The important thing for (Senator) Kerry is to make sure people understand the choices and the decisions that a president makes and how that affects their lives and their values.

"What President Bush will do, I think, is to make it a more abstract question about for or against gay marriage, for or against abortion, for or against gun control, then he's got a chance to split the electorate 50-50 and maybe on security matters he's in," he said.

Mr Clinton also said that Mr Kerry's answer should be to put forward an agenda about education, health and crime. In this case "he could win by a nice margin," he said. The former president said that Mr Kerry was a liberal on social issues but was definitely a "New Democrat", pointing out that when he was in the White House the Senator had voted in favour of the Deficit Reduction Act and the crime bill, had supported the reduction of the size of the federal government and had voted for the welfare reform bill "which many of the left in my party attacked".

Mr Kerry did mention some of these themes during the Boston convention. He talked about controlling healthcare costs, balancing the budget, bringing people out of poverty while promising to keep tax cuts for the middle classes - all very praiseworthy pledges, but rather vague on details.

After the convention Mr Kerry did improve his ratings in the opinion polls, but not by a large margin. He will obviously need to do more. Meanwhile, Mr Bush still has to spell out his vision for the next four years at the Republican convention in New York next month, where he will make an all-out effort to improve his own ratings.