The head of the UN nuclear watchdog, Mohamed ElBaradei, goes to Israel tomorrow to try to persuade the Jewish state to open up its nuclear programme, but officials said Israel was not ready to scrap its atomic arsenal.

Under its policy of "strategic ambiguity", Israel neither admits nor denies having nuclear weapons. But it is assumed to have up to 200 warheads, based on estimates of the amount of plutonium Israeli reactors have produced.

While no breakthroughs are expected, one Western diplomat close to the IAEA said Mr ElBaradei would meet senior Israeli officials, possibly including Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

IAEA spokesman Mark Gwozdecky said it would be partly a "routine visit", but added that Mr ElBaradei intended "to promote the concept of a nuclear weapons-free zone in the Middle East" - clearly the central point of his talks.

Israel welcomes the idea of a Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction but says disarmament has to come after peace has been achieved in the region, which has been plagued by violence and conflict for decades.

"We need ... to rid the Middle East of all weapons of mass destruction," Mr ElBaradei said recently. "Israel agrees with that, but they say it has to be after peace agreements. My proposal is maybe we need to start to have a parallel dialogue on security at the same time when we're working on the peace process."

A diplomat close to the IAEA went even further: "No Middle East peace process can work until we deal with the issue of weapons of mass destruction."

Until recently, diplomats in Vienna said Mr ElBaradei might try to persuade Israel to acknowledge it has nuclear weapons as a first step towards disarmament. But Israeli officials and diplomats in Vienna now say this will not happen. Asked if Israel was ready to abandon its strategic ambiguity policy, a senior Israeli official told Reuters: "Absolutely not. The policy has served the country well for decades against very hostile Middle East neighbours. Only when that regional situation improves can we seriously consider a change of policy."

Britain's Foreign Secretary Jack Straw told BBC Radio Four that a nuclear weapons-free Middle East would only be possible when the Arab and Islamic countries' threat to Israel was gone.

"Then we can put a great deal more pressure on Israel to abandon its undoubted nuclear weapons programme, which has been there ... for defensive purposes," Mr Straw said in comments published on the BBC website.

The weapons

Analysts concluded Israel had produced as many as 200 nuclear weapons on the basis of disclosures from nuclear whistleblower Mordechai Vanunu to a British newspaper in 1986 - making Israel the world's fifth biggest nuclear power.

Recent US intelligence assessments put the arsenal at around 80 missiles.

There have been no major security leaks since Mr Vanunu gave information about the reactor in the desert town of Dimona.

Delivery Systems

Analysts believe Israel developed two rudimentary atomic bombs before the 1967 Middle East war.

Since then, Israel has gained long-range delivery systems such as missiles, submarines and warplanes, according to analysts citing satellite images.

Some experts believe Israel also has "tactical" nuclear arms - mine-sized bombs that could turn battles without causing widespread devastation.

"Strategic ambiguity"

Israel maintains a policy known as "strategic ambiguity" around its non-conventional capabilities to ward off regional foes while trying to avoid an arms race.

While Iraq and Libya are known to have unsuccessfully pursued nuclear weapons, Israel is believed to be the only country in the Middle East to have them.

Israel and the United States accuse Iran of pursuing nuclear weapons, a charge that Tehran vehemently denies.

Inspections

Like India and Pakistan, Israel did not sign the 1970 UN Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), so the IAEA has no mandate to inspect its Dimona facility.

According to historians, Israel received US assurances in 1969 that it would not be pressured to sign the NPT if it refrained from conducting a nuclear test.

The IAEA would welcome it if Israel opened its facilities to inspection, but Mr ElBaradei has said he would not lecture the Israelis on whether they should acknowledge having atom bombs.

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