Qaeda threat remains after Saudi chief's death

Saudi Arabian authorities eliminated a dangerous foe when they shot dead al Qaeda's regional leader Abdulaziz al-Muqrin but the killing of one man is unlikely to end a year-long wave of violence in the kingdom.

Muqrin, believed to have assumed leadership of al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia after the March shooting of Yemeni Khaled Ali Ali Haj, had been wanted by security forces since militants launched their attacks in May last year.

Saudi officials said his death significantly weakened al Qaeda in the kingdom, but the group vowed to press on with its jihad (holy struggle) against Westerners and Saudi rulers.

"It is a very substantial setback for this organisation," said Mohsen al-Awajy, an Islamist lawyer who says he has worked with authorities to persuade militants to lay down their guns.

"He has been the most important target for security forces since the beginning of this violence."

But Dr Awajy said Muqrin's death, while a breakthrough, had not ended the danger. "We should be even more careful. The rest of this group may strike indiscriminately."

Analysts warned that militants had managed to regenerate themselves after successive blows to their network from security forces - most recently the killing of Haj three months ago.

Saudi Arabia declared war on al Qaeda supporters in May last year after they killed at least 35 people in suicide bombings at expatriate residential compounds.

Despite the crackdown militants have managed in the last two months to bomb a Riyadh security headquarters, shoot dead six Western oil engineers in the Red Sea industrial city of Yanbu and kill 22 foreigners in the eastern oil city of Khobar.

An Irish television cameraman and two Americans working for defence contractors were shot dead in Riyadh this month before the kidnapping and beheading of US engineer Paul Johnson, who worked for defence contracting firm Lockheed Martin.

Saudi-born al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden has sworn to evict Western "crusaders" from Saudi Arabia - the birthplace of Islam - as part of his campaign to topple the royal rulers of the world's biggest oil exporter.

And Muqrin, a 32-year-old veteran of war in Bosnia and a failed assassination attempt against Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak, had vowed to make 2004 a bloody year for Saudi Arabia.

"He was among the most vicious of the current al Qaeda operatives on the (Arabian) peninsula," said US ambassador to Saudi Arabia James Oberwetter.

Three other men suspected of involvement in recent attacks against Westerners died alongside Muqrin on Friday, Saudi authorities said. Another 12 people were arrested.

"A huge number of the group around Muqrin were taken out... either killed or arrested," one Saudi security source said. "This is a massive blow to the militants."

One Saudi security source said Muqrin's cell had 40 to 50 hard core members, of whom half have been killed or captured.

But Kevin Rosser of London-based Control Risks said the removal of a high-profile enemy like Muqrin would not wipe out militancy in Saudi Arabia. "The Saudis are facing something much bigger than one man or a small group," he said.

"The fact they at last managed to track him down is very encouraging but I don't think it will make a big difference to the overall situation, which remains very dangerous".

Muqrin and perhaps a few hundred others who had paramilitary experience from years fighting in Afghanistan, Chechnya and Bosnia were only one side of the coin, Mr Rosser said.

"More worrying is the second group who aren't part of a wider network but are getting into the game and mimicking the tactics. They are potentially more dangerous," he added.

It is unclear whether inexperienced militants could launch major operations like the attack in Khobar last month.

"You need a guy to lead them, and there has been a gradual decrease in the number of people who can do that," said Nawaf Obaid, a Saudi national security adviser.

He said the attack in Yanbu, which Muqrin praised without specifically claiming a part in, seemed to have been carried out mainly by men who had stayed at home and become disillusioned by their rulers and radicalised by the US invasion of Iraq.

The United States has said it expects more attacks in Saudi Arabia. Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz, governor of Riyadh, said Muqrin's death was a major blow in the battle against al Qaeda but added that further violence could still follow.

"I don't rule anything out but we are sure we have the support of God, the security forces, and citizens," he said after attending prayers for a security officer killed in Friday's clash.