How the cookie could crumble

Two related outcomes can be predicted regarding Saturday's Malta poll to elect the first five individuals to fill the island's quota in the European Parliament: that the Gallup poll which provided the Malta Information Centre with the probable voter turnout - put at 64.4 per cent - shall prove to be incorrect by a huge margin; and that the actual vote will be not much less than double the forecast average of 47.2 per cent for the 25 EU members taken together.

Euro-citizens are not renowned for the passion with which they exercise their democratic right to select who represents them in the EU Parliament. They use the five-year elections, to an extent, to send a signal to the party or coalition in domestic office. Frequently it is "Boo!". More than that, as in the US choice of president, the mightiest man in the world, voters demonstrate appalling indifference.

In Malta few are indifferent to the political game. Passion is never far from the surface. At election time the collective political class whips it up to a frenzy, in a manner as partisan as could be. That has not failed to be the case regarding Saturday's event. The perception is a weird mix of deciding on membership all over again, and electing or ejecting the domestic government.

In essence it will be neither one, nor the other, but a straightforward test for both the prime minister and the leader of the opposition, and - on a different and, for it and for political plurality, a more serious plane - for Alternattiva Demokratika. In no case is it likely to be a case of make-or-break for the leaders.

If the candidate for AD does not put up a good showing, which one might put, albeit arbitrarily, at getting a minimum of around half the seat quota resulting from the valid votes that will be cast, the future of Malta's third party could be placed in doubt. In the EP election it is at a disadvantage in terms of the resources available to it, but not because, as in a general election, of the way the electoral system works.

If Arnold Cassola, the AD candidate, passes the notional benchmark of first preferences, and inherits a decent number of second and successive preferences, that will be a good show, even if he does not actually get elected. Expect, in that case, AD to be around for quite longer, and probably strengthen, as disgruntlement and disillusion with the government grows up to the next general election. If not, AD's future will look bleak, though not necessarily for its chairman and main symbol, Harry Vassallo. The man's great charisma and intellectual appeal transcend his political base. He would be a prize for either of the main parties, though I doubt that he would be interested.

The test for premier Lawrence Gonzi is clearer and formidable, perhaps daunting. His party fights its first battle with him at the helm, at a time when the government is limping, having lost its verve quite before the general election of April, 2003. It is also normal that, at this stage, the party in office loses some support. This time round the PN will lose the Labour splinter which in the general election reluctantly did not give its first preference to the MLP because of its anti-membership platform.

Also, the PN will not muster support from pockets of disenchanted Nationalists, particularly in the farming and business community. And, with remarkable ineptitude, it has probably alienated a number of those who will be giving their Number One to the AD candidate.

Alfred Sant has a much easier task. Whatever the outcome bar one, he can interpret it as a victory. He will not be able to do that should Labour's share of first preferences be less than the 47.51 per cent gained in the 2003 general election. The argument that not enough Labourites went out to vote, would not wash. At this stage of the political cycle, and particularly with the cards stacked as they are, an opposition is expected to make strong progress, increasing its own support, and not just seeing the government lose out to third parties.

The headline test for the two main leaders will be how the choicest cookie of them all will crumble - which of the PN and the MLP will get the third seat. Initially, especially for those who read politics only superficially, the easy money tended to be on the PN. Now, more likely, the smart money will stay in its owners' pocket. There is no sure bet.

The destination of Seat Number Five will not cause any leadership to crumble. It will bring out a rush of exhilaration on the one hand, and unimaginative excuses on the other. Holding one's breath till one hears and sees it all would not be advisable.

For there is another certainty one can forecast: the definite final result is unlikely to be out before Thursday. And, don't bet on that, either.